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Edited on 07/09/2025, 18:03:59 UTC
I’ve been thinking about this for a while whenever I check the lines in different sportsbooks. We all see odds move up and down before a game, but the real question is, are those numbers actually showing the true probability of the outcome, or are they just being adjusted so the bookmaker balances the action on both sides?
For example, if a team is priced at 1.90, does that really mean they have a 52.6% chance of winning? Or is it more about the book trying to spread money evenly so they lock in a profit no matter the result?
for odds converter, I'm using this i found in the internet https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html
For example, if a team is priced at 1.90, does that really mean they have a 52.6% chance of winning? Or is it more about the book trying to spread money evenly so they lock in a profit no matter the result?
for odds converter, I'm using this i found in the internet https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html
Based on the information I found, the calculation of chance in decimal betting odds is ( (10 : odds ) : 10 = the result of the chance ). So if we use 1.9 as your example, then it will be ( (10 : 1.9) : 10 = 0.5263~~ = 52% ). So, I think your calculation is correct. However, if we talk about how casinos determine odds, then I haven't found the answer yet, but as far as I know, each casino is different in determining odds, although the difference is not that big, because I ever do comparing one casino with another, cmiiw. On the other hand, I also sometimes wonder how casinos determine odds, as a game progresses, we know that they fluctuate when a change in the game occurs, for example, if a favored team is under attack, we know that the odds against that team will likely decrease (I hope you understand, a little confused how define it). So, I think anyone knows about this and could share it here, would you?
By the way, here is the calculation source that I found : Goal.com - Betting Odds Explained
...or odds converter, I'm using this i found in the internet https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html
I didn't know about this aceodds website
I've already bookmarked it and will explore it a little
Regarding the odds, what would happen if some odds were all above 2.0?
I understand your logic that 1.90 would represent 52.6%
But look at this case from the last round of the South American Qualifiers. How would the odds be calculated in this case?
2.40 = 41.66% 2.72 = 36.76% 3.75 = 26.66% ( 41.66 + 36.76 + 26.66 = 105% ) or we can round it to 100%, right?
Original archived Re: Do odds really reflect reality?
Scraped on 07/09/2025, 17:33:30 UTC
I’ve been thinking about this for a while whenever I check the lines in different sportsbooks. We all see odds move up and down before a game, but the real question is, are those numbers actually showing the true probability of the outcome, or are they just being adjusted so the bookmaker balances the action on both sides?
For example, if a team is priced at 1.90, does that really mean they have a 52.6% chance of winning? Or is it more about the book trying to spread money evenly so they lock in a profit no matter the result?
for odds converter, I'm using this i found in the internet https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html
For example, if a team is priced at 1.90, does that really mean they have a 52.6% chance of winning? Or is it more about the book trying to spread money evenly so they lock in a profit no matter the result?
for odds converter, I'm using this i found in the internet https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html
Based on the information I found, the calculation of chance in decimal betting odds is ( (10 : odds ) : 10 = the result of the chance ). So if we use 1.9 as your example, then it will be ( (10 : 1.9) : 10 = 0.5263~~ = 52% ). So, I think your calculation is correct. However, if we talk about how casinos determine odds, then I haven't found the answer yet, but as far as I know, each casino is different in determining odds, although the difference is not that big, because I ever do comparing one casino with another, cmiiw. On the other hand, I also sometimes wonder how casinos determine odds, as a game progresses, we know that they fluctuate when a change in the game occurs, for example, if a favored team is under attack, we know that the odds against that team will likely decrease (I hope you understand, a little confused how define it). So, I think anyone knows about this and could share it here, would you?
By the way, here is the calculation source that I found : Goal.com - Betting Odds Explained