Quote from: Russlenat on September 07, 2025, 11:29:26 AM

I’ve been thinking about this for a while whenever I check the lines in different sportsbooks. We all see odds move up and down before a game, but the real question is, are those numbers actually showing the true probability of the outcome, or are they just being adjusted so the bookmaker balances the action on both sides?

For example, if a team is priced at 1.90, does that really mean they have a 52.6% chance of winning? Or is it more about the book trying to spread money evenly so they lock in a profit no matter the result?

for odds converter, I'm using this i found in the internet https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

Basically I think the bookmakers have something in mind for doing that. I think there was a thread similar to this odd changes and I read a post by someone who said that this odd are calculated based on past or previous performance maybe if a team has been wining all their match till the present one, it is possible the odd will be reduce, meaning their Chances of wining is high. Bookmakers does not considered if the team will fail in the next round. But if after 10minute and the expected wining team is losing by one, the odd automatically changes. So odd really reflect to reality base on the strength of team.

But in another way round I also believe the statement made by versatile choice that the bookmakers can manipulate the odd in a way to decieve you to bet on the small odd perhaps the big odd has a high chance of winning. And I believe this is one of the mathematical propaganda used by this bookmakers that makes them have a house edge over the gamblers.