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Scraped on 08/09/2025, 05:01:05 UTC
Looks like this is just for fun because you estimate that bitcoin will be trading at almost $1m in 10 years, which would be very difficult to achieve and I'll tell you why. In the last 10 years, so from 2015 -2025 bitcoin's market cap grew from 3.5 B to 2.2 T USD. That would have to go up 10x in the next 10 years. meaning we'd need an inflow of additional 20 T USD!
What's the problem? The US government will print this money without any problems, give it to people for free (like during the pandemic), and they will invest in the bitcoin "inflating" the market. 
To give you a perspective, when ETFs entered the scene in 2024, over the course of another ~20 months, the market cap grew by 1.2T, so we'd need to almost double that and not per 20 months, but every 12 months to reach 20T in 10 years. Where do you expect this money to come from?
Are we going to have a never ending bull season from now on with inflows raising exponentially?
What do you expect happens when we go into a bull season ending in $300k in the next 2 years? Because the way I see it we're going to have a reverse FOMO into a bear market because everybody will want to sell some.
The bearish trend will make adjustments to OP's calculations, since when the price of bitcoin falls at such moments, the expenses (sales) of bitcoin will increase (it will be necessary to sell more units\parts of bitcoin to obtain a profit of $100k. per year).What do you expect happens when we go into a bull season ending in $300k in the next 2 years? Because the way I see it we're going to have a reverse FOMO into a bear market because everybody will want to sell some.
Your math seems to count only for a constant growth over the next 10 years which isn't going to happen.
His calculations are given under "ideal" conditions, without taking into account internal influences - the BTC-cycles and external influences, in the form of crises and the like.Original archived Re: How Long Should You Hold Bitcoin for a Passive Income
Scraped on 08/09/2025, 04:55:40 UTC
Looks like this is just for fun because you estimate that bitcoin will be trading at almost $1m in 10 years, which would be very difficult to achieve and I'll tell you why. In the last 10 years, so from 2015 -2025 bitcoin's market cap grew from 3.5 B to 2.2 T USD. That would have to go up 10x in the next 10 years. meaning we'd need an inflow of additional 20 T USD!
What's the problem? The US government will print this money without any problems, give it to people for free (like during the pandemic), and they will invest in the bitcoin "inflating" the market. To give you a perspective, when ETFs entered the scene in 2024, over the course of another ~20 months, the market cap grew by 1.2T, so we'd need to almost double that and not per 20 months, but every 12 months to reach 20T in 10 years. Where do you expect this money to come from?
This question becomes especially relevant in the “expectation” of the upcoming crisis, in which there will definitely not be an abundance of money.
Are we going to have a never ending bull season from now on with inflows raising exponentially?
What do you expect happens when we go into a bull season ending in $300k in the next 2 years? Because the way I see it we're going to have a reverse FOMO into a bear market because everybody will want to sell some.
The bearish trend will make adjustments to OP's calculations, since when the price of bitcoin falls at such moments, the expenses (sales) of bitcoin will increase (it will be necessary to sell more units\parts of bitcoin to obtain a profit of $100k. per year).What do you expect happens when we go into a bull season ending in $300k in the next 2 years? Because the way I see it we're going to have a reverse FOMO into a bear market because everybody will want to sell some.
Your math seems to count only for a constant growth over the next 10 years which isn't going to happen.
His calculations are given under "ideal" conditions, without taking into account internal influences - the BTC-cycles and external influences, in the form of crises and the like.