The bearish trend will make adjustments to OP's calculations, since when the price of bitcoin falls at such moments, the expenses (sales) of bitcoin will increase (it will be necessary to sell more units\parts of bitcoin to obtain a profit of $100k. per year).
Your math seems to count only for a constant growth over the next 10 years which isn't going to happen.
His calculations are given under "
ideal" conditions, without taking into account internal influences - the
BTC-cycles and external influences, in the form of crises and the like.
That's the point. If we continue to have cycles and you expect to live of this passive income, you may find yourself in deep shit when the crisis, that some people are actually waiting for, begins.
If we adjust for a possible 50% bear market drawdown where you have to sell anyway to fund your lifestyle, the whole calculation starts to look different.
But why do you think that this will never happen and we achieved growth only because of the ETF? Perhaps the ETF helped the growth, there is always something that helps growth, and a very important point is the moral growth of the price, few people believed five years ago that bitcoin could reach 100,000, but it reached this mark and fixed itself at it, with 1 million it will also be very difficult, there are a lot of calculations where bitcoin reaches 1 million much earlier than 2036, but I do not believe in them because this is the same moral growth mark and it will also be very difficult to reach, but bitcoin will reach it or cease to exist, just think for yourself how bitcoin will work without constant growth, bitcoin cannot exist without mining and mining cannot exist without constant growth of bitcoin.
We did not did that only thanks to ETFs. I gave the ETF example to point towards a recent fast growth. It was the moment when a lot of money came to bitcoin and it still was less than you're predicting. That's why I'm skeptical that we'll continue to get 2024/25 inflows for the next 10 years.
Do you know why people say that we'll go to 1m next? Because they draw a straight line on charts that makes bitcoin look like it's going to continue to grow exponentially, but at some point this line is going to become more and more flat. Adoption tends to slow down. I'm not saying that we won't reach $1m, but I doubt that bitcoin will appreciate by $100k each year for the next 10 years. I certainly wouldn't rely on this as a source of income.