⭐ Merited by Plaguedeath (1)
Bitcoin has its block subsidy changes and halves by every 210,000 Bitcoin blocks and if people have knowledge about Bitcoin controlled supply and the future supply as well as market cycles related to Bitcoin block subsidy halves, they will time the market better.
Halvings do not really lead directly to price increases anymore. Most of the 2023-25 bull occurred before the 2024 halving and the main factor were probably the US ETFs and not protocol-related supply issues.This can be explained quite easily: The miners' subsidies are making up now far less than 1% of the total Bitcoin sales volume. According to sites like Coingecko the total volume is in the 20-100 billion USD range, and miners' ~450 BTC per day (~50 million) is a tiny proportion of it.
Yes, the limited supply is one of the things that make Bitcoin attractive, but this is known since 2009, thus already priced in for a long time. I guess what you wanted to express is that the limited supply could bring the prices closer to the OP's prediction of several millions, but I disagree here. At least prices above 10 million are IMO impossible without an USD hyperinflation. I don't rule out a million or 2-3 millions though, but probably much later than in the 2030s.
Market timing was ignored in my list, I wanted it to be as simple as possible so I didn't take into account bearish dips like in 2022 or 2018.
Even if it is as you drew it still does not change anything, yes, the price can grow much more slowly but it will still grow and in any case, due to the constant growth, you can make a profit by simply selling a small part of the bitcoin each time and not reducing the value in dollars or reducing it slightly but over a very long period of time.
The point of my post is that there is no constant growth (in the sense of 1% daily or so) but rather a diminishing volatility which also affects the price growth. Look at this graph I posted some weeks ago:
(Source: Bitbo)
That's why a constant passive income with "hodl and sell alone" is imo impossible to achieve. If you can make your Bitcoins "work" in some sense, e.g. investing or lending them, then it is another story. You could also try a hybrid of "invest + hold&sell".