Quote from: d5000 on Today at 12:46:41 AM

Quote from: Isay on September 10, 2025, 04:30:57 PM

Everything is possible, it is not necessary to look at the volatility chart, you can look at the growth chart and it is constant, I am not proving that this is a 100% guarantee of receiving money, ideally not only to hold but also to multiply using DCA and other methods, but the option of simple holding worked before, why shouldn't it work now?

Well but the point I'm trying to make is that there is no constant growth. Constant in the sense that the exponential "growth rate" stays the same for several years.

The volatility chart indeed is not showing the whole picture (volatility can also be ramp up by short-term variations), it only hints to a tendency. So I checked the yearly average price on Jan 1 (prices in $) and calculated a 4 year average from 2014 on:

2011: 0.30
2012: 5
2013: 13
2014: 770
2015: 315
2016: 428
2017: 1010
2018: 13500
2019: 3800
2020: 7200
2021: 28800
2022: 47000
2023: 16000
2024: 42000
2025: 94000

Source: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-price.html#alltime

2014: 197
2015: 275 (39%)
2016: 381 (38%)
2017: 630 (65%)
2018: 3810 (500%)
2019: 4680 (23%)
2020: 6377 (36%)
2021: 13325 (108%)
2022: 21700 (62%)
2023: 24750 (14%)
2024: 33450 (35%)
2025: 49750 (48%)

Despite the varying numbers the tendency is very clear: the growth is decreasing. The 2018 growth of 500% was never reached again (the reason why we don't have higher values pre-2015 is that we don't have price data for pre-2011, we would have around 1000% otherwise for 2014). The well known rainbow charts show exactly the same tendency.

Quote from: Isay on September 10, 2025, 04:30:57 PM

most likely I want to say that people are mostly very lazy and do not want to do anything and most often they save up, buy an apartment and rent it out on a long-term lease stupidly without earning anything, this is more for such people.)

The thing is that a realistic view doesn't prove your idea: if you want passive income, an apartment is indeed better than the "HODL and sell Bitcoin" plan. The only advantage of BTC is that real estate will need work from your part. So with BTC you can be a bit lazier, but you won't get the same type of passive income. Again, taking things like lending into account is another story.

So I didn't take into account the 500% growth, in fact, it was just developing then and was some kind of anomaly with super profits, mining equipment paid for itself even in 1 month, yes, that happened, but such moments happen almost once every hundred years, you shouldn't count on this for a long-term period, I don't think that I wrote some kind of unrealistic graph, I just don't understand how Bitcoin can develop without mining, do you know how it can exist with the blockchain turned off? I don't understand, but if the price is not always 100% once every 4 years, then the ASICs will be turned off and the blockchain will stop, if that happens, then Bitcoin will not grow at all, it will only always fall, do you want to say that everyone should forget about Bitcoin and that it is the end? Or how can it exist without growth and without mining?