Re: Trump and the pressing rate cut

Quote from: free-bit.co.in on September 05, 2025, 02:32:52 PM

Quote from: fillippone on September 04, 2025, 09:47:57 PM

At the moment a cut is weighted 98% by the market.
25 bps is 100%.
There is quite big size of forecast going for more dovish, but as someone told in the Fed is not going to impact with so little effort.

With the non-farm payrolls report just released and coming in much lower than expected, it shows that the US job market is clearly weakening. With this signal, the prediction of the Fed cutting interest rates on September 17 on CME has reached 100%. Of these, 88% predict that the Fed will cut 25 basis points, while 12% believe that the Fed will cut 50 basis points.

Well said, and to buttress that, the PPI released yesterday is another pointer that Powell will cut the rate this month, no matter how little, amid Trump's pressure and insults. This is not a certainty though, they are only pointers. As you can see below, the PPI, despite being predicted by experts to be at 0.3% was released lower yesterday at -0.1%, which is a huge gap.

All eyes are on the CPI today. Experts have majorly predicted a rise, but let's see what the outcome will be.