⭐ Merited by fillippone (5)
At the moment a cut is weighted 98% by the market.
25 bps is 100%.
There is quite big size of forecast going for more dovish, but as someone told in the Fed is not going to impact with so little effort.
Let's see if I was right. One must remember that numbers under Biden were very manipulated and highly skewed to show his performance much better than it was. This is partially the aftermath of that.25 bps is 100%.
There is quite big size of forecast going for more dovish, but as someone told in the Fed is not going to impact with so little effort.
Well said, and to buttress that, the PPI released yesterday is another pointer that Powell will cut the rate this month, no matter how little, amid Trump's pressure and insults. This is not a certainty though, they are only pointers. As you can see below, the PPI, despite being predicted by experts to be at 0.3% was released lower yesterday at -0.1%, which is a huge gap.
All eyes are on the CPI today. Experts have majorly predicted a rise, but let's see what the outcome will be.
It doesn't matter. The FED has a dual mandate, jobs and inflation. Jobs need the rate cut, it has been clear with the recent slowdowns and number revisions. It is happening for sure. Not even the 25 cut is enough, a 50 cut would be welcome. All eyes are on the CPI today. Experts have majorly predicted a rise, but let's see what the outcome will be.