Quote from: Mr_Brilliant$ on Today at 02:43:24 PM

Quote from: yixichloro2xx on Today at 01:15:10 PM

Quote from: Mr_Brilliant$ on Today at 12:03:51 PM

On point man, but I think they need to be unpacked deeper. On the issue of dips being unpredictable, I agree with you that no one can really call the bottom, but that does not automatically mean keeping extra cash aside is wasted.. The truth is, idle money is not a bad thing if it’s serving a purpose, it is called dry powder for a reason.. Having it available gives you leverage when real discounts show up, because DCA alone would not take advantage of those discount, it just averages you in over time… The timing will not always be perfect, but being prepared is better than being fully stretched and then watching a massive discount pass you by with no funds left..

Now, on DCA being a guarantee of progress, yes it has its strengths, removes emotion, builds discipline, and ensures steady accumulation…. But we should not treat it like a religion.. Markets still do reward those who are able to combine consistency with opportunism…. The mix you mentioned (base of DCA with extra buys on corrections) is actually realistic..

And concerning peace of mind you mentioned, I think that is where a lot of investors sell themselves short.. Peace of mind is valuable, yes, but it should not come at the cost of growth potential.. If your entire approach is built around never being wrong, you will likely also miss the chance to be aggressively right.. A balanced strategy is more of consistency yes, but not 100% about consistency, it is about conviction when the market gives you rare windows.. That is why for me, DCA is the main plan and like a safety net, while still taking advantage of a correction if it comes by..

Since no one can truly know when or how deep a dip will go, keeping extra cash on the side might seem like a good move, but it also carries the risk of sitting idle for too long without adding any value.The idea of dry powder works best when the investor already has their base plan in motion, because without a steady habit of stacking, waiting for the perfect moment can easily turn into paralysis. DCA provides that foundation by keeping you in the game regardless of timing, and when the dip actually comes, that reserved cash becomes a boost instead of your only shot. In that sense, the real edge is not just having idle money, but having it alongside an already working strategy.

Even with peace of mind, it’s not about avoiding mistakes completely, it’s about creating the flexibility to act without fear. Conviction matters, yes, but conviction without a consistent plan can backfire the same way hesitation does. A balanced mix allows growth to compound while still leaving room to act aggressively when conditions truly open up. That way, you are not forced to choose between safety and opportunity because you are building steadily while also ready to strike when the market hands you those rare windows.

Let’s look at it this way @yixichloro2xx, if your whole concern is about money sitting idle without adding value, then what is the point of having other categories like emergency fund, reserve, or even savings at all? By that logic, those funds are also idle until the day life throws a curveball right?, yet we both know they are not useless… They are sitting there for a reason, and the value is not in constant activity, it is in the security they give you when the right moment arrives.. So, calling reserved money for dips idle does not really hold ground, because if we follow that line of thinking strictly, you would not even respect your own emergency fund since it will sit untouched most of the time…

Personally, once money is kept aside for a purpose, it no longer counts as idle, it is already working, just in a different way.. It may not be compounding like an active investment, but in opportunity value.. That silent fund is the one that gives you conviction to strike heavy when the market gives that rare window, the same way your emergency fund gives you peace of mind when life throws trouble…. So the way I see it, the word idleness should not even come into the conversation, because idleness means useless, and a reserve fund is far from useless…

Now tell me, am I making sense here? Because if we both agree that other categories of money can sit and wait for their specific purpose, then dip reserves of a person can afford should not be treated any differently. It is not about waiting for the perfect bottom, it is about being ready to act when opportunity shows…

Anyone who is mostly new to bitcoin and investing and even in their first whole cycle likely needs to be careful about holding back too much in their reserves for the purpose of buying bitcoin, since there surely are tradeoffs.

Yes, when we keep money (likely most of it local fiat) as a cushion for an emergency fund, then that money is also idle, but it is idle in regards to buffering uncertainty and negative consequences.. which is not exactly the same as a reserve fund that might have a bunch of money building up to buy bitcoin on the dips and the dips might not end up happening and you also might be putting yourself in the wrong mindset in terms of treating bitcoin seriously in terms of building your stash with certainty rather than trying to strategize too much in regards to timing that might not work out.

In the end, each person has to decide his level of trade offs, and it can be difficult to create examples to show where any particular person might be, so each of us has to figure out our own situation and maybe bat some ideas around if we might not be sure if we are striking a balance that is good for our own situation. Sometimes, we might believe that we are doing the right thing, but we might not realize for several years that we screwed up in our bitcoin accumulation approach... and we can never go back, but attempt to learn from our experiences or to try to hypothesize a variety of possible experiences in order to attempt to carry out a path that is mostly balanced in terms of our own finances, psychology and sensibilities, and even though I list out 9 personal factors to consider, within those personal factors there can be a lot of nuance and ongoing practice and even thinking through aspects of them in order to come to a good balance, yet also to adjust our balance from time to time as conditions change, yet at the same time, the BTC price is not the sole factor that many newbies seem to erroneously get overly focused on... which also frequently had led newbies in the past several years failing/refusing to buy bitcoin, and so now, there is likely appreciation that bitcoin is likely never going below $80k ever again, and sure there are also possibilities that it will never go below $100k or $110k ever again, even though the odds are much greater that we could get testing of $110k and/or $100k, it still is not guaranteed and we are acting like a bunch of dumbasses (rather than being smart) if we are presuming that dips are going to happen, which they may or may not end up happening.

Quote from: yixichloro2xx on Today at 02:48:29 PM

Quote from: Mr_Brilliant$ on Today at 02:43:24 PM

[edited out]

Of course you make a fair point that money kept for a clear purpose is not useless, whether it is an emergency fund or a dip reserve. But the difference is that an emergency fund has a guaranteed role because life will always bring expenses, while a dip fund depends on a market event that may or may not come in the way we expect.

Something is wrong with your point here, yixichloro2xx.

Surely there are folks who are having emergencies all of the time because they do not have strong cashflow management systems/practices in place, yet if we spend a whole cycle strengthening both our bitcoin investment and our cashflow management systems/practices, it becomes likely that we might never end up using our emergency fund, ever (especially once we get past that first whole cycle while we are building it up). So if we never have to use our emergency fund, then it is idle money, but it still serves a purpose and empowers us to be as aggressive as we are able to do with our remaining money, whether or not we might hold back some reserve funds for buying dips as even more money that we are holding aside specifically for buying dips that may or may not happen.

Both of you guys seem to understand the difference between emergency funds and reserve funds that are held aside for buying dips.. and surely there should be an understanding that the emergency funds are much more foundational and less optional, since if any of us are getting to the point that we are having to dip into our emergency funds because we ran out of other money, then it is likely that we are getting into a bit of a dire situation.. especially once we get past our first cycle and we have been investing for a while, then we start to practice flexibility with our reserve funds and we might start to feel stressed out if our back up funds get so low that we are dipping into our emergency funds.

So there is a difference in those funds, even though both of them may well be considered as idle funds that serve slightly different purposes.. yet a guy who manages his cashflow well could well go 20-30 years or more without tapping into his emergency funds, so in that sense emergencies are not meant to happen, yet fluctuating cashflow and changing environments of lowered income and/or increased expenses are likely to happen on a regular basis, but if we are working with enough cash cushion then the ongoing and likely inevitable fluctuations in our income and/or our expenses will not devolve into becoming an emergency, even when extreme circumstances might hit us from time to time.

Quote from: Mr_Brilliant$ on Today at 03:37:41 PM

Quote from: yixichloro2xx on Today at 02:48:29 PM

[edited out]

Regarding the psychology point too, cos that is where most people get it wrong.

I frequently like to consider that if we put relatively strong cashflow management practices in place, then good psychology should follow, and so even if we are still building our cashflow management practices and our various back up funds, then we can still be investing in bitcoin within the boundaries as aggressively as we are able to do in terms of our circumstances, so our psychology might become strong and stronger too since every week (or whatever our buying interval might be) we are adding more and more satoshis to our bitcoin stash and we can measure it. Sure the dollar value might be going up and down and it could even take several years before our bitcoin stash is in profits (depending on what the BTC price does), but we can still consider that we are building all of the important parts which is both the bitcoin investment and the cashflow management. Our psychology should become stronger from there too, whether our networth is going up or down, we should be able to see that we are making progress.

Quote from: Mr_Brilliant$ on Today at 03:37:41 PM

A lot of folks say i am waiting for the dip which is a wrong move.. That is why you DCAing no matter what is the best, so progress is guaranteed, and then if by chance dip really shows, that reserve could help..

It seems that newbie investors need to spend quite a bit of time building their bitcoin stash, and if all that they have is their income stream, then it might hardly make any sense to be dedicating any of their income stream for holding back or waiting for dips that may or may not happen. Of course, some folks come to bitcoin with some already existing investments or extra cash that they want to put to work, so they are not ONLY looking at their income stream to build their bitcoin investment, so if they have some larger sums of money, then they can also consider the extent to which they might want to 1) buy right away with the money, 2) defer by time (DCA) and/or 3) defer by price (buy dips that may or may not happen).

We can balance out how much of or money we want to go to each of these categories, and to me, it seem that the newer that we are to bitcoin, then the more we would error on the side of just investing sooner rather than later and not holding back too much, even though surely there might be some psychological need that we might want to hold back some of the initial lump sum funds and/or the income for buying on dips, and that amount might build up and we might have some dip target numbers, so we can figure out that balance and whether it might make sense to hold back 10 or 20% or maybe some other amount.. and if we hold back from the intial funds that is one thing and if we hold back from the ongoing income that is another thing.

Whether we are brand new or even if we have been in bitcoin for a while, we can perhaps plan out in 6 month intervals in regards to how much money we already have in place and how much of that we plan to allocate towards buying right away, DCA and/or buying on dips.. and sure, if we are still building our emergency funds and our reserve funds, then we might want to consider how much we want to put into those areas too. We can have a similar plan in regards to our income coming in.. and sure we might have an income that produces a certain amount of weekly discretionary income, but we also might have some periodic times in which we come across extra money for whatever reason.. so then we can project ahead regarding any regular income we expect and any possible surprise (or extra income), and we can do similar things in regards to our expenses and build a tentative plan for how we expect to go forward every 6 months, even though surely our bitcoin investment may well be 4-10 years or longer, we still might accomplish getting to wherever we expect to get by projecting out 6 months or longer into the future.

Quote from: Silikiem on Today at 03:51:25 PM

Quote from: Mr_Brilliant$ on Today at 02:43:24 PM

[edited out]

Yes, I think i share in your sentiment and I don’t see the dip reserved money as being idle because it’s already there for a purpose and just like a time bomb waiting for its moment to explode. I think it’s even better for an investor to be fully prepared to accumulate as much during the dip, preparation in the sense that you already have saved enough money for that moment where you wish to accumulate aggressively during the dip because it will save or prevent you from using the money meant for other financial obligations just so that you can accumulate more during dips. Because the reason why I’m saying this is because I’ve seen some investors who have been consistently accumulating bitcoin with their discretionary income using the DCA method to accumulate weekly or monthly depending on how the income flows, they have been following this strategy for a long time consistently, and suddenly there came a significant drop in price of bitcoin, and at that moment the investor feels this is an opportunity to stack more heavily due to the price drop and this investor in order to achieve this went and use money he was supposed to use for his other financial obligations just so he can seize the opportunity of stacking enough bitcoin during that period of price drop, and within a short period of time he started facing the repercussions of using money meant for other financial obligations to accumulate more bitcoin, he got into a financial crisis and was forced to sell off his holdings unexpectedly.

Now tell me, had it been that the investor have already been preparing by keeping or saving up this money he used for accumulating during such dip, will he have went ahead to using the money meant for his other financial obligations?, I don’t think so. So I think that it’s better to get prepared for it. But not to say that you should wait until its dip before you accumulate, you can be accumulating bitcoin little by little and also preparing yourself for the dip before you rush into it, if not then just continue accumulating with your discretionary income as you have always been doing so you don’t end up jeopardizing with your investment.

I think that guys who are accumulating BTC regularly, such as weekly should not feel that they are missing out merely because BTC prices are in a dip and they don't have any extra money, since if they are still buying weekly, then they would still be able to buy during the dip... but yeah, there are faulty ways of thinking about bitcoin in terms of the dollar value in the short term, which it should not matter very much, even though guys will go through such a process of feeling that they are missing out on the dip and perhaps concerns that they bought too high.. yet these are also likely short-term thinking kinds of ideas that should not matter so much if guys have an investment mindset of 4-10 years or more into the future rather than being concerned about whether their BTC were profitable at that particular moment. Sure, maybe their bitcoin holdings went into the negative during the dip, but if we are already realizing that the BTC price can go up or down and that we may well be in the negative, especially during our first 4 years, then we should be able to mentally prepare ourselves for those kinds of circumstances... and just keep buying on a weekly basis.

We are not even guaranteed to be in profits 4 years down the road, but surely it seems that if we keep investing that we are likely going to put ourselves in a good place, and surely there might be some guys that feel better to hold back 10% to 20% or some other reasonable amount in order to attempt to prepare for dips that may or may not end up happening... and so in that sense, guys might have to figure out their own psychological balance, which surely is going to vary with guys depending on their financial and/or psychological circumstances.

Quote from: yixichloro2xx on Today at 04:02:10 PM

Quote from: Cgrexp on Today at 03:33:36 PM

I also believe that, investment should be based on DCA because it allows us to invest regularly and systematically. However, if we have the ability, I don't think it's right to miss opportunities. Aggressive investing will never become reckless if we can make bold decisions and plan properly. However, DCA should not be closed. It is better to keep a certain amount of cash so that we can use it only when the market opens doors. However, it is not enough to just sit around waiting for an opportunity. If I just sit there with money in hand and think that when the opportunity comes, I will enter. Then that opportunity will never come and even if it does, I will be afraid. The main goal will be to maintain consistency in DCA and see aggressive investing as an opportunity.
Aggressive investing means investing when the market falls.But in this case, I think everyone should have their own target plan that how much I will invest if it falls. For example: if the market falls by 20%, I will invest 30%? or if it falls by 30%, I will invest 40%?. This clarity will keep me confident and by doing this I am not sitting around saying 'Buy the dip' and not risking all my money at once. Aggressive investing is not bad but going over the limit can be disastrous. Sometimes you can survive by overdoing it because luck was on your side but that does not mean that the decision was right. So first you should know what your financial limit is. Sometimes you can intentionally go over the limit but it should be a conscious decision and not become a habit. So do not risk aggressive investing by violating financial limits and without a plan.
I am not in favor of aggressive investing for everyone. Investors who are experienced and can control themselves see it as an opportunity rather than being scared during a market decline. Many have been in the market for 4-6 years and have more experience. They know their strategy and have the courage to pour extra money when the market drops. They know when a real discount comes and make informed decisions. Apart from that, another important thing in aggressive investing is to keep cash aside for emergencies. The money that we lose will not cause any problems in our daily lives and we can use it as leverage in the future. So we can create a separate fund for the market from savings and use it during a downturn or for aggressive investment.
For beginners, I think it is better not to think about aggressive investment.Aggressive investment depends not only on the amount of his discretion but also on his personal and family responsibilities. If a new investor takes risks without saving enough for his daily expenses, emergency funds, etc., then it is a danger for him. In addition, due to fear, excitement and pressure, they make wrong decisions and suffer by panic selling. So they should invest in the DCA method and move forward. And when they gain experience, gain financial capacity to take risks, and can make the right decisions according to the plan, they can think about being aggressive.
So new investors should first evaluate their investment and continue investing in Bitcoin with patience and a long-term mindset. Because staying in the game means keeping the opportunity alive. And that opportunity can be profitable for our future. Finally, I would say that aggressive investing is not just about taking risks, but also about taking bold and planned decisions. And those who know when and how to take risks are the ones who succeed safely.

I think the strongest part of what you said is the emphasis on clarity and planning. Too many people say I will buy when it dips without ever defining what that actually means, and like you noted, that usually ends with either hesitation or reckless overexposure. Having a simple framework such as (if it falls 20% I allocate X, if it falls 30% I allocate Y”) removes panic and makes the decision mechanical instead of emotional. That is what separates opportunity from gambling.

Part of the reason that I prefer to get out of the mindset of "buying aggressively on dips" is because, like you said, guys are attempting to figure out a way to "feel the market" and to have flexibility to buy when they get the sense that the bottom is close, which is really difficult to measure and ends up in a waiting mindset.

Another reason that guys likely error by being too greedy to be waiting for 20% or 30% dips as you mention in your example.

Maybe guys can try to be more practical in terms of their dip buying points if they are going to employ such ideas of percentage drop, but yeah, guys get greedy, even though your general idea of stacking the amounts would be a good way to structrue a buying on dip.. .. yet there still might be questions (or differences of opinion regarding how much of a dip would be reasonably practical as a starting point and then perhaps which intervals thereafter without putting too much weight into figuring out the exact bottom.

Let's say that a guy had been in bitcoin for about two years and so he had been accumulating BTC with about $100 per week during that time, and perhaps in about mid-July when the BTC price went up from $107k to $123k-ish he decided to start to save an additional $20 per week for buying the dips. So, what difference is that amount going to make? Sure he might have had been saving $20 per week for the last 10 weeks or so, and maybe he has around $200 in his buying on dip funds. So the amount that he has in his buying on dip funds could make a difference in regards to how big of a dip that he feels that he needs in order to deploy the money that is building up in such funds...

I get the sense that many guys invest too little and save too much in their buying on dip funds, yet in the end, guys can do what they like, even if they might be putting themselves in the wrong mindset when they overly emphasize their buying on dip money and/or think that they need to increase their aggressiveness during dips.. which to me it seems that if they are already being aggressive, then there is nothing to level up, even if they might decide to purposefully hold back some value for buying on dips.