So I did lump sum some time back, but personally I feel now (hindsight?) that splitting the same amount into a DCA would have been a more effective approach.
I bought in Nov '24, as a lumpsum. Then in Jan/Feb I was happy but in Feb we got a bit of a dip - right up until April.
Conversely if I'd done a small amount in Nov, then bought DCA below my last buy price I think I'd have made a bundle more.
You did a good thing by front loading your Bitcoin investment with a lump sum and shouldn't regret why you didn't split the money you used for lump sum into different parts and use it for DCAing, which would have given you the opportunity to buy the long dip that happened between February to April. As a newbie that's starting his Bitcoin investment, after you have front loaded your Bitcoin investment with a lump sum, you should have an ongoing DCA strategy so that you will be persistent and consistent in accumulate Bitcoin, and it will allow you to take advantage of the market and buy any dip that will occur.
Of course, I'm not saying it was a bad thing; I just felt that DCA would have given more value-per-$ that's all.
In future I'll probably split the lump sum into a smaller one-off + multiple DCAs. It's just a change of approach I guess; let's see what happens!
None of us has any fucking clue what the BTC price is going to do in the future, so if we front load our investment, we need to be prepared that the price might move against us.. and surely in the end, as long as we kept buying, then any error in our decision in January-ish of 2025 would have resolved itself with the BTC price returning back above $100k in May-ish and then so far mostly staying above $110k in July-ish.
If we are really thinking long term then it likely is not going to matter too much, and we may well end up making various mistakes along the way that causes our average cost per BTC to be higher, yet it still seems more important to gather more BTC and have higher costs rather than getting worked up about costs and then ending up with way fewer BTC, and there are quite a few examples in history in which the persistent BTC accumulators ended up out accumulating folks of similar (or even better finances) due to their persistence, consistency, regularity and even their aggressiveness in stacking through ongoing buying of BTC.
Yeah, you've just nailed the core of it. I don't think there is anyone capable of accurately predicting the short term price/move of Bitcoin, and over and over again, history has proven that attempting to predict or time the market could potentially turn out to have disastrous aftereffects. Those who mostly ends up with the strongest portfolios are mostly those folks who continuously keep stacking those sats, regardless of the fact that they often overpaid sometimes or missed out on some pretty cool entry points.
Even in a situation where an individual decides to frontload their investment and their cost basis looks higher for a while, there's every possibility that it will eventually balance out in the long run if they only stay consistent. Some folks feels like paying a little more per coin is risky, but It's much of a bigger risk to miss buying or hold back your funds, simply because you're looking for the best entry points. And considering how things played out with bitcoin price consolidation earlier this year, then surpassing $100k and holding, it proves how narratives changes quickly. Just imagine someone stopped buying in January, simply because they're waiting for the price to go a lot more lower, They'd probably still be waiting till now, Lol.
To me, the real edge, both for new and old investors remains persistence and consistency, because these attributes beats cleverness. It's a lot more preferable for me to have more BTC at a slightly bad average cost, than have fewer Bitcoin while waiting around for a perfect time that eventually won't come. Bitcoin is a long term game and requires one with a long term outlook to really reap the benefits of Bitcoin and reach their financial goals easily without much stress. Just stay consistent in your accumulation without minding the temporary movements of the market, it's just as simple as that.
Dips occur by chance and it's not something you just fold your hands and wait for before improving your game in Bitcoin accumulation, remember Bitcoin price is volatile and if you buy continuously you'll be able to buy at both highs and lows and increasing your aggressiveness if you're able is increasing your purchasing power to get more quantities per purchase which would amount to something tangible on the long-run.
IMO it's not a good practice to be whimpy in your DCA because you're accumulating funds for your target dip and what if the dip ends up not happening, then you'll have wasted time and chances waiting for the dip while you could've spread some of the funds across your buying period and if Bitcoin price continues going higher, you'll regret not being as aggressive as you could be simply because you were being unnecessarily conservative and waiting for a dip that didn't end up happening.
It's about proper planning and you've got to maximize every chance you've got to acquire more quantities of Bitcoin for yourself.
Sure, Bitcoin is a very unpredictable asset, and we don’t know what tomorrow holds. The price changes have disappointed some people since they believe Bitcoin is an investment that will continue to rise without dips. That is why using the DCA plan is so important for each investor. With DCA, you can buy whenever the price is high or low, and this allows you to build up your holdings over time without worrying about and asking the market.
However, if you continue to buy according to plan, you will not panic if the price goes up or falls since you are accumulating gradually. The advantage is that you will end up with more Bitcoin in the long term, regardless of any changes in price. As you said, instead of waiting for a perfect time that may never come, with DCA you will grab every opportunity to continue building. your portfolio.
I disagree BTC has been a mortal lock to go up if you hold it 10 years or longer.
that is the exact opposite of unpredictable.
Bitcoin price could only be considered to be unpredictable during the short term price movement. One can only try to chart it, guess it or even follow cycles, but at the end of the day, the price still ends up swinging wildly in an unpredictable direction and most of the times, it often make those predictions to look foolish, lol. and this is exactly why short term perspective tends to put people into a messy situation, they'll either end up panicking when there is a dip or start feeling greedy when the market is in a bullish trend. So yeah BItcoin price within the short term can indeed be unpredictable for when considering the long term, predicting it seems a lot more easier.