Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!
by
Tungbulu
on 23/09/2025, 02:29:26 UTC
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
[edited out]
Ah no J, I'm not concerned at all about my average cost. I have never been able to read charts to
forecast market shifts. I keep an eye not regularly on the MACD and RSI charts when I am
ready to make another purchase. Personally I know its really difficult to time the market so I dont
really. Take today for example the market has dropped again to $112k from $116 yesterday so I
am getting really close to a buy point, I wont loose sleep if I miss the bottom or it it falls further
after I buy because I know in the long term I really doesnt make much of a difference.

But I am sure there are people who might be obsessed with trying to time the market which is ok,
I can understand they would like to get the "biggest bang for their buck"
I just cant dedicate the time and effort to do it myself, I have never dedicated the time to do it
that way.

2016 was when I got my first Bitcoin and all the subsequent buys through 2017 I couldnt tell you at
what Price and if it was when the market was up or down, It doesnt matter to me 8 years later.

Those are all reasonable points aoluain, even though it may be problematic to point out the errors that other guys are doing without suggesting that there are better ways to go about accumulating bitcoin... and I do consider that it is problematic for newbies to bitcoin to prioritize waiting for BTC price dips rather than just buying regularly, especially in their first 4 years of accumulating bitcoin, unless they happen to be abl eto front load their investment so then they would not have to buy as regularly, yet it still can take a while to build a bitcoin investment, even if a guy were to be able to front load his investment... yet each person still has to judge for himself if he believes that slowing down in the bitcoin accumulation based on thoughts about price makes sense, and newbie guys frequently come to erroneous conclusions, in that direction.
There's this natural tendency that most newbies might wanna optimize their portfolio by attempting to accumulate Bitcoin only/mostly during DIPs. and looking at this mindset from a surface perspective, it might actually sound like quite a smart move, buying low huh? But when you look at it from a practical perspective, it's almost bound to always backfire, well except the individual in question is very disciplined, have some good level of experience with how Bitcoin tends to move and emotionally detached, and this isn't qualities a newbie is most likely to possess.. It mostly ends in them sitting around and waiting for a dip that may likely not even come the way they feel it would, which may potentially lead to them missing out on sharp buying opportunities.

The irony here is that, attempting to always time the market is one of the major things that often keeps folks underexposed. They turn themselves to spectators, rather than actual investors, and one secret that most investors don't know about Bitcoin is that, being an active and consistent participant, especially during the early days of your Bitcoin journey, is way more valuable and profitable than just sitting around and trying to outsmart the market.
Now, about front loading, indeed it can be pretty effective, but that is if the individual has the means and conviction, But that doesn't mean that it's some magical shortcut. it's crucial to note that applying or deploying a lump sum doesn't in any way guarantee that one would have emotional comfort market volatility. and even if someone goes ahead to front load, without really having full understanding of what they're holding, they might still end up getting shaken out during market downturns, so even when folks decides to front load their investments, it's importand to still maintain a long term mindset as well as mental resilience.

I've come to the realization that regular accumulation, (doesn't matter whether it's strictly DCA or some hybrid approach) is a way more solid approach, compared to other approaches, especially when you're still in your first cycle. during this first four years, it's less about timing or outsmarting the market and about blending in and getting more acquainted with the game. The moment that you have successfully built a foundational stack and have weathered a few price cycles, then surely, you'll be free to think about applying a more tactical approach, because at that point, you must have already gathered much experience. I also see a lot of investors who slow their accumulation pace or even completely stop accumulation, due to short term expectations from the market, which is one of the worst mistakes any investor could ever make. they end up confusing being smart for being hesitant, and by this sudden hesitation, they end up missing out on the compounding effect that comes with consistently and actively being involved in the market. They also tend to forget that Bitcoin is a long term game and it tends to reward those who prioritize time and conviction over cleverness.