This is referring to time-based sustainable withdrawal, and I probably have not been consistently clear about how to make such calculations, and it was ONLY recently that I had bitmover change the tool on the website so that it has a spot price dollar based calculation and a 200-WMA based calculation (there is a tab on the website to make the selection), and it seems to me that if a dollar based withdrawal rate is based on the dollar value of the 200-WMA, then the 200-WMA tends to signal BTC bottom prices and also it has tended to always go up, so it is a much more stable way of valuating our BTC holdings and determining how much BTC that we are able to sustainably withdraw based on such 200-WMA dollar value.
We are all clear on this due to discussions in other threads. I'm starting to love this strategy but I want to wait a few years to see how it works on in contrast to your predictions.
Sometimes I won't even mind having some discussion of shitcoins as long as there is some clarity which one (or which ones) are being discussed, so using the category crypto will sometimes make it unclear about what is even being discussed, and if someone were to invest in crypto they need to figure out what they are going to invest into.
I understand your position. I think for certain matters it is alright to group everything else into altcoins when drawing a comparison to Bitcoin. Still for most comparisons one needs to be more specific.
Many of us will also get bothered by people thinking that they are investing into bitcoin, but they are investing into ETFs or they are holding their bitcoin on exchanges, and sure for all intents and purposes, we might be able to concede that even derivative products will still give price exposure, so third parties holding the BTC is ONLY going to negatively impact when there is some kind of bankruptcy or rug pull event.. and we saw quite a few of those in 2022 with FTX and some of the other culprits that ended up going under during that time, starting out with Tera luna that likely did not have as many bitcoin as they claimed to have had, but they were defending a supposed algorithmically stable coin that was supposedly backed by supposed real bitcoin.
I wish that people would self-custody, but the current balances of BTC on exchanges sadly tells us that many people don't do it. In my opinion retail exchanges should have a very low supply of Bitcoin on daily basis.
Have people considered that we usually have Uptober because people expect Bitcoin to go up in November and buy in during October? By doing this they generate the bullish sentiment themselves.