Quote from: Xun hu on September 30, 2025, 02:42:28 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 29, 2025, 02:54:50 AM

You don't sound confused.

Sure you might have to practice with the ideas for a while and put such ideas into practice within your own life - without being flippant about it, and surely, you might be able to learn to take bitcoin and your cashflow seriously and even learn about bitcoin (and your own self - finances and psychology) along your journey into building up a bitcoin stash and strengthening your cashflow management systems and practices. And, yeah, all of what you do may or may not end up improving your life and giving you more options by investing into bitcoin as compared to not investing into bitcoin, as you noted that possibility to be part of the mix of things that could end up happening in your life.
You could make all kinds of great plans, and have everything going for you, and the next thing you know, you got hit by a bus and kilt. You also could try to figure out some balance, and maybe you get hit by the bus and maybe you don't, and if you end up putting yourself in a better position 4-10 years down the road due to your balanced practices that involve investing, reasonably improved cashflow management practices and some kind of balanced consumption, then yeah, you may or may not be in a better place due to your various efforts.. and bitcoin may or may not be $1-10 million in 10 years.. .it could be ONLY $20k..

You don't really know the future or the various outcomes, and what outcomes might be more likely than other outcomes, even though if you educate yourself on various matters related to the world, money bitcoin and other topics that might affect you, then you may well be able to put yourself in better positions that you are able to fit into a variety of possibilities, yet how you deal with these matters is in your hands, and what you consider would be the better ways to prepare yourself for a variety of future scenarios would also be within areas that you likely could control.
These are matters that are on you to figure out the various kinds of preparations in regards to attempting to control things that you are able to control and accounting for various possibilities of things that could come at you from things that you either cannot control or that you might only be able to partially control. There is a mixed bag in life and some folks start out with better tools in their bag, and others are able to acquire some of the better tools along the way to improve their situation at various points along the way, even if there are a lot of challenges in the world and even some bad things going on too.

Hey thanks for breaking that down i think i kinda get it but i’m still feeling a bit fuzzy about balancing it all .
Like, i get that i should focus on controlling what i can control cashflow, small Bitcoin stacking, and maybe not overthinking the rest but sometimes it feels overwhelming when i try to think 4-10 years ahead what if i mess up the balance early on?

Everyone makes a lot of mistakes along the way, and it tends to take a long time to build an investment portfolio, whether we are talking about investing into bitcoin or anything else.

you have to figure out ways to invest within your budget so that if you believe in the thing that you are investing into (such as bitcoin) then you can invest more aggressively into it, yet in the beginning, you might not really believe in it, and the main thing that you see is that historically it had gone up in price, yet you still have to figure out a balance in your budget because you might not have a lot of spare money, which perhaps is part of the reason why you are getting nervous about your investment.

Also, no one wants to lose money, yet you should still approach the investment by ONLY investing your extra money that you would be willing to lose if either the investment went against you or you screwed some things up... so the fact that you have money that you might end up losing, you try to take measures to protect your investment and to keep learning about your investment so that you stay comfortable with it, especially for the first whole cycle (your first 4 years buying it).

Surely if you are able to buy more in the beginning then you might have more options, yet many folks ONLY have extra money from their income or perhaps extra money that they might get from time to time.... which is part of the reason that it can still take a long time to really build your bitcoin stash size up into a meaningful amount.

Imagine that even if you are able to put 10% of your income into bitcoin, it is still going to take you 10 years before you have put a whole year's worth of income into bitcoin. Sure, there could be ways that you might be able to be more aggressive and to be able to invest more than 10% of your income into bitcoin, yet then you still would be running up against the issue of possibly pushing yourself too much.. so you have to figure out some balance, and that balance comes from practice, doing it and reflecting upon what you are doing in terms fo figuring out if there might be some things that you might change, including considering your 9 factors and perhaps building systems around your 9 factors.

Quote from: Xun hu on September 30, 2025, 02:42:28 PM

Also, the bus metaphor hit me i guess life really can throw anything at you. So maybe it’s more about just starting small, practicing these habits, and seeing how things go over time?

That is likely the best way. You will learn more from practice than you will by merely thinking about it or being overly scared... Sometimes after you might be investing for 3-6 months, you might reflect on what you are doing and you might try to think about creative ways that you might be able to increase your discretionary income so that you can invest more, such as increasing your income and/or cutting your expenses...

And, sometimes, even increasing your income might not be a straight forward answer because if you are still young, then maybe you might consider if there might be some university work that you could do or maybe you go to a technical school to develop some specialties, or maybe you employ some volunteer work or some internship so that you can learn how to do a certain kind of work, and maybe you start outworking for free or for a low amount while you develop skills that you consider will result in your improving your income at later points in your life. .which could result in more meaningful ways to figure out how to incorporate bitcoin into your investment of time, energies and value.. but you might have to incorporate other skills and other ways of spending your time in order to make money, yet there also could be ways to try to combine some of those activities... perhaps?

Sometimes we are locked into a path that is working, and other times, we have to rethink our direction and figure out what we might need to learn and how we are going to spend our time, energies and money and what we are going to invest into. and how much we might have to balance investing into one thing versus another... since time is also limited, and if we delay getting started or procrastinate in our making progress, then we might regret some opportunities that we missed earlier.. which ends up playing out as mistakes that we hopefully learn from and make adjustments to what we are doing and how we are spending our time, energies and value.

Quote from: Dogedegen on September 30, 2025, 03:34:40 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 25, 2025, 03:03:10 AM

This is referring to time-based sustainable withdrawal, and I probably have not been consistently clear about how to make such calculations, and it was ONLY recently that I had bitmover change the tool on the website so that it has a spot price dollar based calculation and a 200-WMA based calculation (there is a tab on the website to make the selection), and it seems to me that if a dollar based withdrawal rate is based on the dollar value of the 200-WMA, then the 200-WMA tends to signal BTC bottom prices and also it has tended to always go up, so it is a much more stable way of valuating our BTC holdings and determining how much BTC that we are able to sustainably withdraw based on such 200-WMA dollar value.

We are all clear on this due to discussions in other threads. I'm starting to love this strategy but I want to wait a few years to see how it works on in contrast to your predictions.

I know I repeat myself, and surely some folks understand certain points better than others, and some folks are not going to agree with my various strategies and/or opinions, which might be part of the reason that I will repeat various aspects of my discussion, and maybe even attempt to explain better or to learn from my attempts at explanations.

Whether we are talking about price-based sustainable withdrawal or time-based sustainable withdrawal (as I refer to in my sustainable withdrawal thread), a guy might not be in a position to employ one or the other strategy until he has reached some kind of overaccumulation status, and he might not even know exactly what that is going to look like, until he gets close to getting to that point, since the BTC price is ongoingly changing, the debasement of the dollar is changing, and perhaps even his expectations regarding his targeted standard of living might be changing too.

Anyone could proclaim that they are waiting before they might start to employ a sustainable withdrawal strategy, yet their wait might be due to their own uncertainties in regards to whether they have reached a status of having enough or more than enough BTC, so if they are uncertain, then it may well be better to error on the side of just HODLing rather than starting to sell, especially if they are not sure whether they have reached a point of having enough or more than enough.

Regarding your own conviction about the solidness of the strategy. that may be more due to your own perceptions of your own situation rather than the actual ability to back test it.. so with the passage of time, the quantity of BTC needed to maintain a certain standard of living has gone down greatly.. which surely has been the case historically, even though we surely can recognize and appreciate that past performance does not guarantee future results.

Quote from: Dogedegen on September 30, 2025, 03:34:40 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 25, 2025, 03:03:10 AM

Sometimes I won't even mind having some discussion of shitcoins as long as there is some clarity which one (or which ones) are being discussed, so using the category crypto will sometimes make it unclear about what is even being discussed, and if someone were to invest in crypto they need to figure out what they are going to invest into.

I understand your position. I think for certain matters it is alright to group everything else into altcoins when drawing a comparison to Bitcoin. Still for most comparisons one needs to be more specific.

Sometimes the irritation comes from the lack of specification, yet other times, the irritation might come when members end up diverting a bitcoin topic into some things that are not on topic, and maybe even purposefully aimed to divert or to be misleading. And, surely some folks just use the term crypto to refer to everything, so they end up inadvertently engaging in imprecision that is just sloppy or maybe an attempt to seem smart, but such vagueness ends up showing that they might not be informed enough about bitcoin in order to make sure that they hare specifying what they are talking about and how it relates to bitcoin (if it happens to relate to bitcoin?).

Quote from: Dogedegen on September 30, 2025, 03:34:40 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on September 25, 2025, 03:03:10 AM

Many of us will also get bothered by people thinking that they are investing into bitcoin, but they are investing into ETFs or they are holding their bitcoin on exchanges, and sure for all intents and purposes, we might be able to concede that even derivative products will still give price exposure, so third parties holding the BTC is ONLY going to negatively impact when there is some kind of bankruptcy or rug pull event.. and we saw quite a few of those in 2022 with FTX and some of the other culprits that ended up going under during that time, starting out with Tera luna that likely did not have as many bitcoin as they claimed to have had, but they were defending a supposed algorithmically stable coin that was supposedly backed by supposed real bitcoin.

I wish that people would self-custody, but the current balances of BTC on exchanges sadly tells us that many people don't do it. In my opinion retail exchanges should have a very low supply of Bitcoin on daily basis.

For sure, the power of bitcoin comes from some amount of self-custody, and not everyone needs to self-custody in order for bitcoin to retain such power, yet at the same time, there may well be some convenience in regards to using custodians, and maybe people don't really imagine that they are going to end up getting rug pulled or locked out or their funds.. or otherwise inconvenienced by their having their coins held with third parties.. . so they may or may not end up suffering negative consequences of keeping their coins with custodians.

Quote from: Dogedegen on September 30, 2025, 03:34:40 PM

Have people considered that we usually have Uptober because people expect Bitcoin to go up in November and buy in during October? By doing this they generate the bullish sentiment themselves.

I don't know. Sure there seems to be some liquidity matters that contribute towards seasonality (or calendar timing) of pumps. I don't really change my own behaviors based on what I think might or might not happen in the short term, even if from time to time, I might sometimes perceive that trends (or momentum) might be happening.

Quote from: Lembo69 on September 30, 2025, 06:40:21 PM

Quote from: Hardyrobust on September 30, 2025, 12:16:54 AM

There investors that may not want to go in all at once, they may decide to keep some percentage of there discretionary income and them use the remaining percentage for buying the dip. As per being a low coiner ,

As you said, you can decide to buy dips. No one knows when the market price will dip and when it will be high.

Therefore, it is believed that buying through the DCA strategy without allocating some percentage of your discretionary income for dips will be the best option.

I agree with you, but your way of saying these matters is confusing…which in essence you got the idea right, which is just because we do not know if or whether dips will happen, that does not mean that it is a good idea to hold back value for buying dips that could have had otherwise been used to just buy bitcoin regularly.

Quote from: Lembo69 on September 30, 2025, 06:40:21 PM

Yes, you can also save for dips. But you don't know when the time for that dip will come. Therefore, it would be wise to buy more and more regularly through the DCA strategy without allocating money for dips.

It would be better to buy regularly without waiting for dips and to maintain discipline in your investment in a sustainable and stronger way.

Ultimately you got it correct.. especially for newbies.. You since it can take a long time to just build up a bitcoin holdings, so it likely is better to focus on one’s own capacities, such as finances and how much can be put into bitcoin on a regular basis (such as weekly) rather than trying to figure out whether or not a dip might happen.