Quote from: pandaisftw on May 10, 2014, 04:01:14 AM

Quote from: Whoisthelorax on May 10, 2014, 02:50:56 AM

Try again, corrections happen all the time in healthy bull markets. That is investor lingo 101, not speculator lingo.

http://mutualfunds.about.com/od/activevspassivefunds/a/Market-Correction.htm

In reference to the number of coins in BTC wallets...I wasn't making a distribution argument, but nice try.

In regards to your assertion that by my definition, Bitcoin is a scam, that is incorrect. A ton has happened from the inception of BTC to today, including dozens of governments adding it to their tax code (or making it tax free) because so many of their citizens intended to use the currency. While there is speculation in bitcoin, the price has normalized nicely.

Just to be clear, I'm extremely skeptical of an investment into a currency that hadnt been released yet to receive 5,000x increase in valuation in 1-2 months. Your apparently extremely skeptical of a coin that has been accepted and utilized by tens of millions of people around the world in 5 years, had government hearings, thousands of business owners (incuding a few big businesses) accept the currency, and a number of Wall St type big wigs enter the fray (wayyyy after the early adopter period, mind you). While the likelihood of a bitcoin-like 1000% value appreciation happening is still very very low, there was a ton of demonstrable things that led to its rise in price. NXT cannot say the same AT ALL.

Yes, they do happen, but you cannot predict them. At least, TA (which is what you're doing) is used to analyze what happened after, any other claim is really trying to read a crystal ball. So it's nonsense when you say "I expect a pullback", because it really may or may not happen. What time scale is "too long" or "too short" in the cryptoworld? These are subjective arguments that anyone can make, and are equally as meaningless. Look at the rise of Bitcoin's value in November - do you see all of those sell orders? Why would *anyone* sell during that period at 300, 400, 500, 600, 700... crazy, right? Oh, wait, it's because they expected a "pullback", which really did not happen until the coin went up all the way over $1000.

Isn't this whole topic about distribution? "Instantmines" and "fastmines" are direct complaints of perceived "unfairness", because "early adopters" get too much "advantage". When you used words like "absurd profit margin" in your wiki, it's clear as day you're letting your emotions argue for you. There really is no factual basis behind your argument.

Also, I hope you can see the irony of this particular statement (in relation to your arguments) in particular:

Quote

In regards to your assertion that by my definition, Bitcoin is a scam, that is incorrect. A ton has happened from the inception of BTC to today, including dozens of governments adding it to their tax code (or making it tax free) because so many of their citizens intended to use the currency. While there is speculation in bitcoin, the price has normalized nicely.

Yes, so you're saying Bitcoin has intrinsic value (because it has other uses than just speculative value), and it would be silly to apply this simple analysis to it. I really do hope you know a lot is going on these days, and there will be a paradigm shift from shit-coins to actually-useful coins within the next few years - that's just the trend lately. Thus, yes, as I stated in an earliest post, this analysis probably applies to copycat shit-coins, but does not apply to any coin that has any particular intrinsic value. Just like Bitcoin.

As I said, you ignoring this intrinsic value in every single coin (except Bitcoin, apparently) is doing everyone a disservice. A more solid "analysis", IMO, would be to determine whether or not a particular coin has any intrinsic value, and whether or not that coin is undervalued or overvalued based on that. Statements like "it rose X, so it can't possibly rise Y" are meaningless. Statements like "it will rise X, because of Y" actually provide some insight.

For some reason, you're focusing very heavily on NXT, as if that is all I am talking about. NXT is not my only investment, but I digress. What Bitcoin is doing now is paving the way for other coins, you don't actually think alt-coins will have to go through the same process as Bitcoin did, right? (Besides adoption) Once the legal framework is in place, more people are familiar with crypto, etc. - that does not need to be done again. I believe in cryptocurrency in general, but this "analysis" is clearly an agenda to promote certain coins because you refuse to take into account of all the factors even when it's shown that your model is too simple.

But just to scratch an itch - have you seen the recent developments of NXT at all? Or are you just using what you've heard or perceived from other people? I encourage everyone to actually take a close look at what NXT is doing and not believe what FUD-sters promote, because all of these arguments ("instantmine", "distribution", etc.) are really distractions from the real point - what the ecosystem can actually do (and is doing).

Pandaisftw

we have been experiencing the pullback for the last few months. And just because you know a correction is coming soon doesn't mean you sell (for the reasons you alluded to...you can guess wrong). Traders study the technicals and try to figure that out. Investors spend more time on the fundamentals. They like to buy and hold. They buy on the dips of the corrections way more than they play the day trader game.

WRT your idea of a better analysis; great, why dont you do that analysis then.

I don't focus on the intrinsic value of bitcoin in my article. AT ALL. this conversation with you has been a rather pointless endeavor. Like it has been said ad nauseum, the article focuses on mining data/coin generation only. Bitcoin's mining data checks out. No mention of btc atms, nada.

I hear you that you want a less emotional post about NXT. I can see how that needs to change. It still will be in the extreme caution category the reasons stated (that we seem to disagree on).