Quote from: ineededausername on December 30, 2011, 02:04:22 PM

Quote from: old_engineer on December 30, 2011, 05:11:36 AM

Quote from: old_engineer on December 30, 2011, 04:46:57 AM

I wouldn't be surprised at a correction down to $3 or even below in the next couple weeks, though I don't think it's likely.

Zhoutong has said that most of his users are long right now, and I presume this is on the order of tens of thousands of coins.

If there were a 30k btc dump down to $3.80, liquidation of 10-to-1 leveraged longs would start, which might drop the price to $3.50 - $3.60 range. There's very little support under $3.50, with only 5k btc between $3.21 and $3.49. If the price does managed to break $3.60 or so, the spread would start liquidating 5-to-1 leveraged longs taken at $4.20, and would certainly drive the price to $3.00-$3.10 given the shallow support below $3.50.

There's another 70k btc in bids between $3 and $2. If $2.50 is breached from panic selling, recently taken 2.5-to-1 long leveraged positions would start being liquidated, and would push the price close to $2. It would be an epic mess.

For whatever it's worth, I'm mostly in USD right now, and have bids in the $2-$3 range to catch the dagger on the offchance it falls. I hope it doesn't, but I really have no idea what's going to happen next.

I should add that if there were a 30k btc buy instead of a 30k btc sell, a short squeeze would drive the price straight to $5. Basically, any big move is amplified due to rampant leveraging combined with irrational exuberance and irrational bearishness (Nagleism?). I think it's worth keeping this fundamental in mind when placing your bet.

How would you have a short squeeze when zhoutong's out of money? Wink

not a short squeeze per se but it would wipe out their accts by being Zhoutonged.