Quote from: OldGeek on May 11, 2014, 07:16:26 PM

tl;dr;bilae
(too long; dont read; but informative links at end)

So, now what? Ive been studying the tealeaves without result. I intended to stir some chicken entrails with my long stick but the dog ate them first. No result. My fav TA analysts show slightly different interpretations. Mixed results, mostly lower for an undetermined period, with chances for breakout at some future date. Trying to gauge sentiment consensus on here is about like the tea leaves. No consensus.

Ive already written that I stopped my day trading activities a few months ago. Im now trying to figure out what would be my requirements to re-enter that fun and frustrating arena. Before I can do that, I have to revisit my reasons to stop trading and pull my btc back.

Sometime in Nov or Dec, I was goxxed twice. Moved my coins to BTC-e because speed of that transaction. Had fun and an increase in coins, trading the peaks and valleys on the way down from ATH. Then a combination of international events (Senor Putin, China-Japan, China-Philippines, Karpeles-MtSux fiasco, etc.) caused me to reexamine my hole cards. Then, the realization that coins on an exchange under my control was an illusion. The control rests with the exchange owner/operator.

Therefore, to begin active trading again, I need a reliable exchange. One that is transparent and honest. How to judge those requirements? No clue. Absent reliable, transparent, and honest, I would need to see a rising trend in coin price. Stagnant, $20 daily swings, and steady drips to the bottom, just wont get it for me. Even with suspect exchanges, I would resume trading on a sustained up trend by removing and depositing coins as needed, a practice that would limit profits, but one that would be much less risky.

While these thoughts have come and gone these last few months, a couple of articles came to my attention. The first, although I think misnamed, sets out the reasons that alt coins that are substantially clones of bitcoin are doomed to failure (Doge, your days are numbered). Read here if interested: Bitcoin suicide

The second article, if true and accurate, (and if you likeextreme conspiracy theory) sets out the reasons why bitcoin will not be the denomination of the world economy. Warning! Subversive literature aimed straight at the flag waving fanatics: World economics, forever out of your control

For the near future, Im holding my stash. Waiting for an uptrend that begs to be traded, fiat available on two days notice.

Resisting the Jack Burton urge to go "What the hell," Egg Shen says after reading the oracle bones: goat butts against hedge, and its horns become entangled. We have to gather our strength because now theres clouds and thunder. The image of difficulty at the beginning. But we shall bring order out of chaos.

I happened to be watching "Big Trouble in Little China" and it seemed to make sense.