Quote from: mooncake on May 14, 2014, 06:07:02 AM

The China bad news had been priced in. No more CNY into exchanges through bank deposit. Minor exchanges had closed. I can't think of any more China news worse than what we already knew, can you? If no more bad news, where will the price go?

We do not know how many coins the Chinese traders still have, in-exchange and off-exchange. We do not know how much CNY can enter the exchanges. (The convenient channels have been blocked, but there are still some less convenient ones, and they may be enough for a few traders to move large amounts.)

Right now it seems that the Chinese traders too are uncertain about what the price will do. Some traders probably dumped their coins and left the game, but many apparently are still there, waiting. Volume is small compared to the good old days, but still large compared to the Western exchanges. The latter still seem to track Huobi and OKCoin more than the other way around.

It seems likely that there will be further bad news, such as other exchanges closing, or the loss of some of those roundabout deposit channels. However, in the short run those news may cause the price to go up rather than down, since they may create demand for BTC as a way to leave and/or continue speculating. Eventually, however, more coins must move from the Chinese exchanges to the Western ones, so the price should go down. The momentary dip on Apr/12, to 2230 CNY = 340 USD, shows how far down it could go.

PS. Note that the market does not react to "news", it reacts to facts (real or false) that it learns from the news...