Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

Is it not obvious that without FRESH FIAT (I think I am going to change my user name to this) that these markets cannot go up? And there is no way for fresh fiat to reach the Chinese exchanges.

And if the markets don't go up (and we all should be fully prepared for the market to meander right on past the cross point of this multi-month wedge that everyone's talking about) then the markets are all SITTING DUCKS to bad news coming out of China - like an exchange(s) closing, etc.

Buying here is ridiculous. Shorting isn't a great idea either - although you can often borrow it for almost free, just in case.

I agree with you. But the price could go up if the Chinese realize that they can't get their fiat out of the exchanges (I don't know if this is the case or how likely this is). But in that scenario prices should go up as they buy b/c. I think we will still follow China (even though they should be irrelevant imo).

I think the point is, how are they going to buy BTC (or keep buying it anyway) if they can't get money into the exchanges?

Yes that is true, but they may already have fiat on the exchanges. The traders who wanted to get out must have cashed completely out by now (I know I would have). If the remaining traders realize that buying b/c and transferring it off the exchange is the only way they can avoid losing everything, then they will buy bitcoin with their remaining fiat (on the exchange). This buying will push the price up. This is bitcoin, and something crazy like this could happen although I don't find it likely. I hope that Chinese exchanges will shut down before this happens.

But for Bitcoin to go back through the roof quite a lot of money is needed. Only the management of Huobi and the other Chinese exchanges know how much money is in at the moment but I bet it's relatively low. And with the incoming channels being stifled...

In a way this situation is starting to remind me of Gox. Although the spread widened as things got worse the price of BTC on other exchanges remained affected by Gox until the bitter end. As fiat shortage issues plague the Chinese exchanges the same dynamic will play out as long as said exchanges are on display alongside "western" exchanges.

A few months ago I wrote to Bitcoinwisdom asking them to remove Gox from their charts. We were quite clearly watching Bitcoin prices no longer - the price of Gox shares was on display. But everything was presented as per the other exchanges. I know many people dismissed the idea of removing Gox data from Bitcoinwisdom, but I think it is important to understand exactly what is being displayed, which was not made clear.

I am not necessarily saying that there should be suppression of data coming from Chinese exchanges (fight censorship with censorship eh Wink

) but I think some kind of development is needed vis-a-vis price reporting services, to include for example analysis of regulatory issues in different territories, and to segregate data accordingly.