Quote from: rpietila on May 14, 2014, 06:27:05 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on May 14, 2014, 05:58:02 PM

Quote from: damnek on May 14, 2014, 05:43:51 PM

Quote from: rpietila on May 14, 2014, 05:34:48 PM

I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days.

Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts:

Double bottom at $2 in 2011.
Our progress so far in the bottoming process.

Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain:

2011:
- 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2
- GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery
- another flashcrash to $2.

2014:
- 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340
- GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery
- ?

(to be found out in 7 days.... Wink

)

I'd like to bet against your call, interested?

He doesn't bet anything straight forward. You would have to give him odds, and even then good luck with clarifying whatever it is that the bet is supposed to be. Also, he will NOT bet for any less than 50BTC to make it worth his time. Cheesy

~~The probability that the price would go that low inside 7 days has historically (2013-) been 7.2%. If I make such a call, I naturally have to give you better odds. How about double (14% == 7:1)?~~

Never mind. I don't have time for this.

Also this is getting stupid. I expected a little bit interest at least.

This chart shows that the double bottom turns to an uptrend that will take us to the price level prevalent before the first flashcrash (in 2014's case 650, prior to dipping to 400 in 2014-2-25). This will happen slowly but steadily during 7 weeks.

TL; DR: We are at 650 in the beginning of July, 2014.

WOW!!! your response is much more straight forward than I expected.

In essence, you are predicting a 7.2% chance that within the next 7 days BTC prices will go to $300-$350.

Your original statement made it seem like you were predicting more likely than NOT that we were going to see BTC prices in the $300-$350 range in the next 7 days......anyhow, I feel better now that I realize the odds are less than 1/10. Accordingly, I am NOT going to sell any BTC on those kinds of odds. Im gonna HODL, HODL, HODL.