Quote from: aminorex on May 21, 2014, 06:52:08 PM

Quote from: Cassius on May 21, 2014, 06:00:33 PM

I've no doubt that impressive growth is possible. But I'm slightly cautious of equating speculators' with regular punters' money. It could easily be an order of magnitude bigger.
But there's no arguing with people who use that kind of language.
(Perhaps you could clarify the terms - I assume M = market cap, n = number of adopters, k is your constant?)

Yes.

BTC speculation to date has been limited to the extreme margins of motivated, informed speculators with massive risk tolerance and a visionary posture. That's a pretty rarefied atmosphere. Historically, the major enabling factors for expansion have been expansions in the carrying capacity of the channel for fiat inflows. I take it as a given that one or more major capital markets will offer a public liquidity vehicle for custodial BTC in the next 6 to 12 months, so I think it's pretty safe to say that 18 months would be an extreme upper bound for the next bubble onset, which is likely to be a doozy -- a word which historically referred to the Deusenberg motorcar.

I have said these things many times, as have many others, I am sure, but when someone expresses a perplexity, and these points seem helpful to provide an accurate form of clarity, I will supply a reminder. Accurate conviction on points of minority knowledge is a wonderful thing. Since I am fully charged for the time-being, I have every reason to propagate this boon where possible. You can bin me with the uberbulls a la Risto. I don't mind at all.

Woo, hold up there. Absolutely no disrespect intended, or even real disagreement (though I can't put you in the same category as Risto). Dangers of non-verbal communication and British irony, I suspect.
Appreciation on greater adoption is a given. My one misgiving in quantifying it is the amounts of money that are already in vs what might come in. But I suspect it's the difference between one order of magnitude's upside and the next.