Quote from: thoughtfan on May 22, 2014, 03:56:00 PM

Quote from: molecular on May 22, 2014, 03:39:07 PM

Quote from: thoughtfan on May 22, 2014, 02:09:50 PM

My fear is as the realisation dawns on the bigger players that Bitcoin is 'the one' that it will be pumped by banks and central banks who can magic large sums of fiat into existence with which to buy bitcoin (and who may even dump gold temporarily), creating the ultimate bitcoin megabubble so that billions of latecomer ordinary people and businesses buying their first bitcoins will be shafted as the great bitcoin dump starts, into pms, into land, artwork etc. into a 'better' crypto - assets that had been neglected for the period bitcoin was so attractive, even back into fiat (they could use this point to launch more 'stable' 'new crypto-dollar or new crypto-pound etc.) until bitcoin finds a stable long-term pricepoint well below (even orders of magnitude below) the hyped price the masses bought at. Problem is of course nobody beforehand can know what this price will be. We would still be in a much better world than today because with bitcoin established fiats (old or new) will not be that attractive but if central banks are deliberately hyperinflating forcing people into crypto on their pump stage people could end up with 1000th of what they had before.
...

If that happens we might not end up with the assets / bitcoin and all the stuff in the most desirable hands, true. However what makes me have a positive long-term outlook (for humanity, I personally might be gone by the time we see the fruits of this) is the fact that we will then have transitioned to a sound money regime, which should have the effect of a fairer, more level playing-field and much a more efficient economy that puts much less strain on our human and natural resources than what we currently have (the fiat-fuelled continuous growth paradigm that keeps producing these cancerous escapades and keeps hurting us).

So even if entities that don't "deserve" it end up with the most wealth initially (by the way you described), after the transition is complete that wealth will dissipate from them if they make bad decisions towards the people that make good decisions. If they make "good" decisions on the other hand, they get to keep and grow their wealth, and rightly so. Noone will be bailed out by the taxpayer as is the case now (no more inflation tax) and everybody will suffer or enjoy the consequences of their actions, as should be.

I hope it'll work out and I hope I'll be able to see and live it, too. Crypto is our best shot at this.

This view may be simplistic or even naive, but for lack of better options I hold it (and bitcoin, too ;-) )

I agree molecular and am happy that the longer term will be free of the consequences of the weaponry fiat money has provided governments with to wield against the governed. I'm beginning to think though that I have been naive in thinking it would all happen fairly smoothly. I had previously been quite dismissive of the doom 'n gloom scenarios painted where disenfranchised fiat bag holders are literally up in arms against the new wealthy in a kind of apocalyptic scenario. However I'm now thinking the transition may be rougher and with much more suffering than I had previously thought.

What got me dismayed just in reading Risto's 2 billion reference was the idea that though not a pyramid scheme, the timing and price of buying-in for the vast majority may end up that they lose out big time.

If Central Bank of nation N were to simply create currency and exchange it for Bitcoin, the effect would be (1) the price of Bitcoin would rise until CB stopped buying, and in no case could it buy all or even a significant portion of the BTC on the market (the more is bought the higher and faster it rises) (2) the national currency of N would be devalued, instantly vs. Bitcoin, and gradually vs. other fiat currencies.

No CB would do that. The Fed has stated (Yellen) that it has no authority or responsibiliity over Bitcoin, they are certainly not going to put the dollar at any further risk by pumping BTC. And no CB of any economy that counts, even tiny ones, is run without (a) independence from political pressure, (b) massive internal controls, (c) a clear mandate to protect its own currency. But if, per impossibile, some rogue CB starts trying to accumulate BTC, well, that's great for Bitcoin, see (1) above.