Quote from: ranlo on May 29, 2014, 01:30:49 AM

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on May 29, 2014, 12:03:04 AM

Quote from: oda.krell on May 28, 2014, 10:51:36 PM

Quote from: BitchicksHusband on May 28, 2014, 09:42:16 PM

Quote from: ibankbitcoins on May 28, 2014, 06:22:50 PM

A steep trendline is bound to break. It has a slope of 12dollars per day! It is not significant.

Ask yourself this: Why are many of us in the bitcoin community more surprised that it stopped than if it had kept going?

Because many of us in the Bitcoin community are so habitually optimistic that they're bound to be disappointed?

This is not to say that we won't ever make $12 per day. At some point, that'll look like "careful growth". Just not now. Not after leaving (hopefully) a bone crushing bear market of half a year. Too many traders (count me into that group if you want) more than happy to take (still pretty specular) profits before letting it fly again.

We've averaged about half a percent growth per day for 5 years, which at today's price is almost $3 per day. In 6 or 7 months, we should be expecting $12 per day to be just another day in paradise. Cool

EDIT: Actually, I think the SlipperySlope / Risto log trend model says it should come sooner than that, since the current price of $580 is significantly below the trendline.

PS Oda Krell - I love your Feynman quotation. You think it works with bitcoin? Huh

The issue is thinking that this trend is going to continue at the same rate, which just isn't sustainable. There's no telling how long it will last, but it won't be indefinite.

I can't see into the indefinite future, but I think continuation for the next 2-4 years is as good of a guess as any other. This is based on back-of-the-envelope valuations of $ 500 K - $1 M that are found elsewhere in this forum.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1