Quote from: toknormal on May 30, 2014, 03:18:31 PM

Quote from: MatTheCat on May 30, 2014, 02:55:33 PM

Never rely on one indicator alone. Especially not the MACD.

LoL. That's kind of like saying don't just rely on your ears to tell you a 150mph train is coming round the bend in 20 seconds.

That isn't just *any* MACD indicator. It's a 1-week one. What that means is that it isn't predicting what's happening, it's TELLING you. That kind of momentum doesn't turn around in a few days - or even a few weeks - unless Bitcoin blew up technically.

What's more, the selling that went on during the past few months was in spite of the fundamentals, not because of them. It happened against a background of all kinds of bullish news such as the overstock adoption, senate hearings, Winklevoss ETF progress through the regulatory framework.

ok, there's been some negative stuff as well, but it's all short term and largely inconsequential to Bitcoin's adoption - Gox going bankrupt, malleability histeria, China trying to put their finger in the dyke etc.

So you've had 4 months of downward pressure from 3 short term sources....

[1] - the correction from December's pump

[2] - China regulating their FIAT gateways

[3] - F*ck ups like Gox and the malleability scare

... against a background of growing favourable fundamentals, not least of which is the Winklevoss ETF which will open a massive Fiat gateway into the market (the biggest of which is currently BTC-e and Coinbase Undecided

)

All this has had the effect of compressing a coiled spring which is what you're seeing in the MACD histogram there. There isn't any better indicator to demonstrate the aggregate effect of these market influences because you're seeing higher level derivatives of the selling momentum over a long long period, so it runs deep.

It might change course, but only as fast as the world's biggest supertanker at full speed.

this is correct.

the higher low drawn on the MACD was one of the first indications to me that we had bottomed out: