Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model
by
lyth0s
on 02/06/2014, 15:45:51 UTC
Tracking the 2014 Bitcoin Bubble - First Doubling

I am tracking the number of days it takes the bitcoin price to double. This is a proven indicator for determining when a bubble is peaking. There is academic research that quantifies the super-exponential growth during an asset price bubble, but the math is much simpler when counting days-to-double. Historically, the bitcoin price peaks when prices are on a pace to double in about a week.

The first doubling leading up to the next bubble took 51 days, which is the difference between $340 on April 10 and $680 on May 31.

I will be watching for . . .

Second doubling - $1360 (perhaps July)
Third doubling - $2720 (perhaps July)
Fourth doubling - $5440 (I think the late July peak will be near this value)
Fifth doubling - $10880 (probably will not happen unless the peak is in the fall)


Those predictions would make this one hell of an exciting year! Do you have any good sources for the bubble peaking when doubling price is in 1 weeks time?