Quote from: lyth0s on June 02, 2014, 03:45:51 PM

Quote from: SlipperySlope on June 02, 2014, 03:36:19 PM

Tracking the 2014 Bitcoin Bubble - First Doubling

I am tracking the number of days it takes the bitcoin price to double. This is a proven indicator for determining when a bubble is peaking. There is academic research that quantifies the super-exponential growth during an asset price bubble, but the math is much simpler when counting days-to-double. Historically, the bitcoin price peaks when prices are on a pace to double in about a week.

The first doubling leading up to the next bubble took 51 days, which is the difference between $340 on April 10 and $680 on May 31.

I will be watching for . . .

Second doubling - $1360 (perhaps July)
Third doubling - $2720 (perhaps July)
Fourth doubling - $5440 (I think the late July peak will be near this value)
Fifth doubling - $10880 (probably will not happen unless the peak is in the fall)

Those predictions would make this one hell of an exciting year! Do you have any good sources for the bubble peaking when doubling price is in 1 weeks time?

Looking at the price records for the three previous bubbles, we see . . .

June 9, 2011 peak at $32 - doubling from $16 in 4 days.

April 10, 2013 peak at $260 - doubling from $130 in 7 days.

November 29, 2013 peak at $1163 - doubling from $581 in 13 days.

The November peak is interesting because the rally to $758 on November 18, doubled from $359 in 6 days. I therefore thought that $758 was the peak, but the correction down from $758 was only to $379 which did not appear deep enough to me and other observers that day.

I suspect that the next bubble, being widely anticipated will have one or more dramatic pre-peak spikes that double in about a week.
I will combine the doubling time indicator with a threshold from the Log10 Delta From Trend chart when predicting the next peak.