Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
by
zimmah
on 04/06/2014, 10:17:00 UTC
...

I see it as very unlikely that the bear market in gold will continue for much longer. The bull market was reversed only through blatant manipulation with the help of derivatives. Part of the Quantitative Easing money created is used to short gold. Gold as the ultimate physical store of value will not lose its status and will rise in fiat terms when the fiat ponzi starts crashing - yet most likely much less than BTC.
Real money thinking will move to Bitcoin, but Keynesian thinking will flee en masse to real money thinking when their views dissolve.
Most of the world still sees gold as the ultimate representation of wealth. A big proportion of the people will not shift so easily from a physical store of value conception to a digital store of value conception. People like gold, especially more so outside the western world.
Gold can easily do x10 (1000%) within the next 10 years - depending on the geopolitical and monetary unfolding.
Silver can do x50
Bitcoin can do x1000 (100,000%)


My take is that the Keynesians will stick with what they love namely fiat; however if they decide to go for real money they will pick Bitcoin over gold. After all why pick the asset that is "going up x10" over the one that is going up x1000? Furthermore by picking that asset that goes up x10 they have to admit they were wrong.

My take is within 10 years
Gold x0.3 or even less
Silver x0.2 or less. I expect silver to lose value with respect to gold.
Bitcoin x2000 or more.

Dude, how can silver be 5 times cheaper than it is now? It's already unprofitable to mine silver, and silver is used in industries a lot. The demand for silver can not even go 5 times lower. Even if the demand for silver (as investment) would drop to 0, silver would still be in high demand for industrial purposes. Silver prices could even rise without anyone having to invest in silver, just because the industrial demand is so high and will only increase as production of electronics increases.

Also the gold to silver ratio is incredibly low. So silver will more likely gain on gold.

Bitcoin will still outperform both gold and silver. But gold and silver will still gain value relative to fiat. I think a 10-20 time increase for gold and a 50-100 time increase for silver is realistically possible.