Quote from: Puppet on June 04, 2014, 08:12:46 PM

Quote from: tsm13 on June 04, 2014, 07:47:49 PM

Puppet its all about timing. i think most folks get burned by greed though

Timing is important, but its even more important to understand the fundamentals of the market. When it comes to asic mining, on average anyone who is directly or indirectly dependent on market prices for their hardware, ie, doesnt produce his own chips, will get shafted. You may get lucky here and there, with clever or lucky "timing", but those instances are the proverbial exceptions that prove the rule; The odds are firmly stacked against you, and this is inherent to the weird market dynamics of bitcoin mining.

Far too few people understand this, and they just look for the "least worst" opportunity out there. Since there are so many wannebee investors, they create demand and drive up prices (and directly or indirectly, hashrate) in a market that is zero sum, and the result is that there are no decent opportunities for anyone. Maybe cryptx will be among least worst, but its not gonna yield a BTC denominated profit in the long run. All it will do is funnel capital to the asic vendors and their mega mines who will end up owning this market.

BTW, I should add, cryptx is no fool. If he can avoid regulatory trouble, then he will profit too, regardless of his investors ROI. I suspect he also understands the fundamentals all too well.

Well in terms of timing, perhaps having a large hashrate just before a boom will be 'lucky', so maybe we will see ROI. I admit we'd have to be lucky, but it is still a possibility.