Quote from: buck19 on June 06, 2014, 08:00:55 AM

Quote from: ujka on June 06, 2014, 06:52:53 AM

Ppl over there in main thread calculated that the profit from selling 60ph of chips, retaining 1/3 for gen4, is about 0.0676 btc/share. If paid weekly from 30th March (12x), that would be 0.0056/share per week.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg7157011#msg7157011

If using the 33% yield we were used to base the share price on havelock, that would put shares at 0.87.

I think 33% yield is a little steep. If AM starts cranking out manufacturing and mining dividends as expected, sooner or later some confidence in the company should return, perhaps lowering the yield to the 20-25% range, with a corresponding increase in price. To repeat something I heard last year, AM could be one of the only blue chip stocks.

Since we have several weeks before anything is planned to happen...........Speculation time!

In a base case scenario of AM returning 0.15BTC /share from all Gen3 (chips sales / franchise+self mining + anything else), a 10% APR would give us 1.5BTC/share. Last year the market was setting a much higher APR, however I wonder if the success of a Gen3 launch in addition to a competitive and funded Gen4 roadmap would change that. Investors seeing two planned generations (4 & 5) from the company as well as other endeavours may build long term confidence. Settling for a lower ROI and crowning AM as a blue chip investment in bitcoin securities.

Last year shareholders were enacting large sell walls on the Auction forum in an attempt to keep the share price from rising too fast. With a full year of new investors in the market and an increase in the number of AM shares on Havelock, trading could look much different as well. If the market has an over-valuation period this summer to the 'good times' like it has seen in the under-valuation department to some perceived 'bad news', 1.5BTC+/share could be seen. A range of 1-1.5BTC /share seems likely. Keep in mind we were perched at 0.5 BTC/share weeks ago in anticipation of the dividend, which now appears to be bigger than most expected albeit somewhat delayed.

Would love to hear others constructive thoughts and speculations on the above. AM truly does appear to be one of the very few securities with a medium to long-term vision this early into cryptocurrency.