Quote from: dooglus on June 06, 2014, 09:48:46 PM

Quote from: tucenaber on June 06, 2014, 03:38:44 PM

The answer seems to be 284 million rolls.

The question isn't:

"how many rolls do we need so that I have a >50% chance of seeing a streak of length L or longer",

or

"how many rolls do we need so that the expected longest streak is of length L".

The question is:

"we have seen N rolls, what is my chance of seeing a streak of length L or longer?"

Which is kind of the same thing, but in the opposite direction, and apparently much harder to calculate.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1i545nMJFtALaiqaH8TTolcqBYj0DmnHr38Up0DElurM/edit#gid=1829191626

Solution for a streak of L = 28, for N rolls, in tab "L = 28". Add rows to increase N. Unfortunately sheets is limited to 400k rows. Perhaps another different program could use my formula to compute the answer for N = 357MM?