How sure are you that you are interpreting this particular set of 'facts' correctly? How sure ought you to be to have exited your HODL strategy? I would say you need to be pretty damn sure. More sure, in fact, than you are that HODL will work for the pure HODLers.

I would like to see you test your ability to recognize actionable 'facts.' Every time you see what you consider to be a clear signal in the market, write it down as a prediction that is clear enough that a computer could decide the truth or falsehood (eg, "the price on stamp will drop to xxx between now and xxx," something like that). Write down the date and time of your prediction. Also, rate how sure you are of yourself. Do this whether or not you actually make a trade on it. Heck, even post your predictions here as an "official Mat the Cat Prediction." After, let's say, 20 such predictions, you will calculate a batting average. That way, next time you are trying to decide whether to take your coins out of cold storage, you can remind yourself what your batting average is.

(Disclaimer: always take unsolicited advice with a grain of salt  )