Quote from: BTCtrader71 on June 10, 2014, 05:07:04 PM

I would like to see you test your ability to recognize actionable 'facts.' Every time you see what you consider to be a clear signal in the market, write it down as a prediction that is clear enough that a computer could decide the truth or falsehood (eg, "the price on stamp will drop to xxx between now and xxx," something like that). Write down the date and time of your prediction.

As you well know, reading markets is as much of an art form as a science. Anyone can cherry pick 'facts' to suit his own emotional bias. So perhaps the real battle is learning to calibrate ones tendencies for emotional bias. By announcing 'MatTheCat predicts', I am emotionally investing in a certain course of market action which may serve me up to a point, but I will more likely than not be required to change my stance as and when the market demands, but.....

MatTheCat predicts!

Despite the textbook bullish pennant, Bitcoin is more likely to break down before it can break out due to heavy selling pressure that seems to be operating primarily through Bitstamp. I am looking in the first instance for a retest of the $620 range and then we will see where we are and whether Bitcoin wants to rise or correct further down to say $580. In the case that I am totally wrong, then should Bitcoin break above the new long term downtrend resistance line currently at $665 (dating back to Nov 2013), and on strong volume, than that would be a time to go long.

Quote from: inca on June 10, 2014, 06:27:44 PM

Yes when he admitted he only held ~13 btc I remember thinking , "why bother?".

That is just under $10K. I have already lost around $5K on a short trade I decided to 'Hodl' on knowing that the market would eventually come back to me. The market eventually did come back to my short-sell point (only just), but my nerve caved-in way before then at what turned out to be around $35 from the top of the market. That experience hurt a lot. The 'paltry' $5K certainly fucking mattered and I shall never take such a gung-ho and/or negligent approach to trading ever again.

Right now, most people around here are of the opinion that another large move up is coming around the mountain and I would tend to agree with them at this point in time. However, there is also a convincing bearish case that suggests we have just had a Wave B of a greater Wave 4 correction from the November ATH. If that turns out to be the case, which it might, then I don't want to be bag holding from the top of the market. I should still be holding my position from $460, but I thought I could be smart and take profits and buy back in on a correction that never quite materialised. Since then it has been a cagey game of in and out for me. Next time I catch a clear winning tide, I shall know to get the Bitcoins the fuck off the exchange and into some offline wallet before I start drawing lines on chart and go getting 'smart' ideas. But until then, I have decided that my risk tolerance is such that I will not sit back and hold if I am convinced that there is a strong chance that the market is going to move against me in the near future. If I cement small losses doing this and am forced to buy back in at a higher price on break out, then so be it. That is my new policy.