Quote from: BTCtrader71 on June 13, 2014, 12:36:37 AM

Quote from: MatTheCat on June 13, 2014, 12:15:28 AM

This one came pretty good.....a bit too fucking good and if it doesn't stop soon, it might turn pretty bad. Had buy-in tranches from $600 right down to $560, but all this was happening whilst world cup was on, otherwise I would have been in position to place my buy-ins a bit better.

You may have caught close to the bottom of the knife just perfectly, Mat. Already rebounding. My analysis (I am reposting from rpietila's thread) is that the 80-point drop from 630 to 550 on stamp (a 12% drop) was panic selling as an overreaction to news of the Silk Road selloff.

Here's why I calculate it to be an overreaction: According to http://bitcoinwatch.com/, the volume of BTC traded over the past 24 hours on all exchanges is somewhere around 150,000 btc. (Someone pls verify I'm reading the chart correctly ... ) Compare that to 30,000 btc that the US Marshals Service is going to selloff. Are they going to dump it on a single exchange over the next 10 seconds? No. They are giving us a 19-day warning (payment is due July 1 - see http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/ ). If total trade volume between now and then is (let's say) $2mil btc, an extra 30k just increases the volume over that time period by 1.5% -- a drop in the bucket.

Seems a bit more coordinated than that. Some whale operating on Stamp has been keeping the market down all last week. Of course, foreknowledge of a news event like that could no doubt be easily come by prior to the official announcement.

Also volume does not equal quantity of Bitcoins. Compared to what I was like a few months back, I have been pretty inactive in Bitcoin of late, Still, in the past 3 weeks, I have probably account for 150 Bitcoins worth of trade, with all my entries and exits from the market. I currently hold just 15 BTC. So perhaps a rule of thumb would be to divide volume by 10 in order to find the real amount of Bitcoins that the market has a capacity for holding and in reality, you would have to divide the total volume with a much greater number than 10 in order to find out how much Bitcoin the market players are holding or capable of buying/selling.