I didn't examine the calculations for the larger 9.7E-29 figure (equal to 93 tosses) but it's probably the chance to succeed in one of a large number of attempts.
It's the probability of
any two addresses matching in a set of ~17 billion random addresses. The probability for finding one specific address is 1 in 2
160 per attempt, as you pointed out.
I want to make sure I have this right since I'm not too good with probability.
The probability of any specific address is 1 in 2^160 or 1.4x10^48 right?
So the more addresses you have out there the higher the chance of a collision right (birthday problem?)
I understand the birthday problem and how it works, combining that with the rate addresses are generated makes my head hurt but inspires me to take a probability class.
Maybe I'm over complicating it or not making it complicated enough. Math is my weakpoint.