Quote from: skaffen on June 15, 2014, 10:48:06 PM

I think most would disagree, it seems clear that the [USMS SR ] sale is responsible for the recent drop.

I agree that most people here would disagree. Cheesy

But I still think that the drop comes mainly from China, caused by (rumors of?) further tightening of the clamps around the yuan input channels, and perhaps disappointment about whatever expectations caused the rally two weeks ago.

One (admittedly weak) argument is that the price seems to want to go up while the Chinese traders are asleep, but is pulled down once the Chinese pandas wake up. (It seems that there is a handful of Chinese water buffaloes who wake up half an hour earlier and help the price rise, but are then overcome by the pandas. Like, right now.)

Quote from: skaffen on June 15, 2014, 10:48:06 PM

a large percentage of traders thought the SR sale wouldn't happen, due to the US not wanting to be seen to sell bitcoins (because it would supposedly give them legitimacy).

Is that true? I would think that anyone who knows a little about how the U. S. Government works would have guessed quite accurately when and how the auction would take place. They must dispose of any property that they seize according to the law. They had neither the choice nor the motivation to keep the coins, trade with them, or sell them in a private deal.

Quote from: skaffen on June 15, 2014, 10:48:06 PM

Now has the market priced in the sale of DPRs coins? I think the timing will make a difference, because of the limited supply of bitcoin on the markets. The price will drop if/when he is convicted.

Did the court authorize the sale yet?

I know that he hasn't exhausted the appeals, but I seem to recall a claim that the court can authorize the auction if he is convicted on first trial, and he will get refunded in USD if the decision is reversed on appeal. Is this true? If not, then the appeals will probably drag on for a year, perhaps?