Quote from: hongo on June 17, 2014, 05:56:51 PM

I would say that according to the 1% average he was doing per day if he is making 0.65 BTC a day, he has only 65BTC. He owes 444.48 BTC.
So according to my calculations he will be able to repay all back in 194 days. x=log(444.48/65)/log(1.01)
So sit down and wait till January 2015. Not that bad.

Quote from: btclemming on June 16, 2014, 02:52:39 PM

Based on the refund rate (on average 0,65 BTC / day) and the amounts we were receiving on the btc-arbs platform during march and beginning of april, I would bet our friend will say he's playing with around less than 100 btc... looooong way to recover.

If he has 65 BTC, he will need to gather 379 for the people currently listed (444-65=379)

With 0,65BTC per day, he will need 583 days to gather the 379BTC.
583 days = 1,59 years

The time to refund everyone can decrease dramatically depending on how many coins he actually has.

If he has:
100BTC = 1,44 yrs
200BTC = 1,02 yrs
300BTC = 0,6 yrs

But, without real figures we can only guess how long it will take