While this (and some other things you say) makes sense and sound solid, there is no guarantee that the future of altcoins will "make sense".

It will almost certainly make sense afterwards. Therefore it is possible in principle for it to make sense in advance.

True..in principle, but I think the distribution might have a fatter tail

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There is no guarantee that it will, but if it does not, that is my own failiure, not a failure of the altcoins.

If you don't know the future and what unexpected things will influence the result that's hardly a "failure" on your part