Quote from: Entropy-uc on June 19, 2014, 05:51:14 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on June 19, 2014, 05:42:20 AM

Quote from: Entropy-uc on June 19, 2014, 05:30:46 AM

Quote from: organofcorti on June 19, 2014, 05:20:39 AM

If flound1129 posts the daily totals of d1 equivalent shares sent to Bitminter, I'll work it out for you.

Dude I like you, but you don't have over $1M invested in hardware. You also haven't been cheated out of over 100 BTC by the withholder on BTCguild. I'm not going to hang around for months of 'bad luck'. If Flound wants to put all his rewards into escrow until we see several weeks of expected or better solved blocks that's great. Otherwise we will move on if nothing is done to ensure everything is above board.

Sure, I don't have a huge investment mining investment, and I can understand how worried you might be about not making a return on that investment. But when you have that much cash on the line, the last thing you want is to be forced into an action without being certain that it's the right action.

Here's what I'd do if I had that much of an investment:
1. Mine at multiple pools, and not just some of the larger ones. It will reduce your variance further, and if you mine at multiple small pools you'll be helping the network (at the cost of extra accounting, I guess).
2. Get good at calculating statistics and making decisions based on those stats. I'm be happy to help you with that, it's not hard once you get some basic ideas.

I hope this doesn't come off as smart-assery, it's not. I just hate to see people make decisions that are not based on facts. I'll help you calculate the results that should inform the facts if you like.

Sigh. I understand the statistics just fine. Go ahead and calculate the probability of 250 Th/s solving only one block in that last 2 weeks if you want to put an exact number on the situation. I don't need to do that.

*Very* roughly, 1 in 600.

Quote from: Entropy-uc on June 19, 2014, 05:51:14 AM

It's serious enough, and there is enough solid information that there are active bad actors in play that the default assumption is that there is a problem. I don't need to prove something in court. I need to protect my investments. If Bitminter can't do that, we will move on.

There was one block withholder, and there's no proof that he was a bad actor - from everything I've read he was mining in ignorance of the state of his hardware, and fixed it once he was told there was a problem. The fact he isn't going to repay the coin he took reveals him as a bad actor of sorts, but I don't think you were referring to that.

Although now that they've shown it's possible, it might encourage others to do the same, I suppose, for the same reason any vandal does what they do.

However, if these guys that are mining on multipool can do a withholding attack, why not just mine on Bitminter (or any another pool they want to attack) directly? It's much harder to detect a block withholding attack performed by many smaller miners.