Quote from: piramida on June 20, 2014, 11:02:36 AM

Quote from: DieJohnny on June 20, 2014, 10:31:38 AM

Quote from: TERA on June 20, 2014, 08:40:33 AM

"bubbles" aren't supposed to be predictable. The moment this "bubble watch" started and became ritualistic was a red flag.

completely true. The more people are standing around with their popcorn waiting for some jump to 5k like it is a natural geyser, the more likely it will never happen.

2014 is gonna be a stinker.

Yep, right when everybody will be standing around waiting for 2014 to be a stinker jerking around $500, it will blow up tenfold Wink

If the price goes nowhere at all to the end of the year, I see some big advantages to that. Especially if a takeoff occurs in January - when no one expects it.

Those of us subject to the IRS tax code who invested a sizable chunk a few bubbles ago and held, can actually enjoy a normal tax bracket in 2014, and not deal with an obscenely high tax bracket until early in 2015, and have the whole year to tax plan - cutting back on earned income, not bother trying to claim charitible giving since btc will put us above the phase-out point, etc, etc. Maybe even move out of state to a no-income tax jurisdiction and save on at least part of the year, although that may be difficult to pull off so quickly.

The trick is to know when to start selling off percentages - and when to buy back at low points. I'll be following one of those best-fit semi-log straight-line multi-year trendlines for all my future buys and sells. Chop down the high points and fill in the low points helps level out the long-term volatility. Might take 8 months or multiple years between peaks, no one knows.