Quote from: JorgeStolfi on June 30, 2014, 07:07:58 AM

Quote from: Yololintian on June 30, 2014, 06:42:30 AM

Why are you so obsessed with the Chinese having to lead the exchanges? Its clear that stamp/finex led this based on how much they moved up (15-20 $) while huobi went up around $10.

* Huobi and OKCoin jumped from nothing at 05:43 UTC, Bitfinex only at 05:44, BTC-e maybe at 05:47. So Bitfinex and BTC-e can be eliminated.

* At Bitstamp there was a trade of ~400 BTC at 04:43 but it did not have immediate effect; the price started rising over the next 3 minutes with very little volume; whereas at Huobi and OKCoin trade stayed very high after it started.

* The the initial rise at Bitstamp from 600$ overshoot but quickly fell back, stabilizing at 613$ (13$ increase), while at Huobi and OKCoin the rise was ~70 yuan which is a bit more than 10$. The difference of 3$ can be explained by "hysteresis", since the real spread at Bitstamp is usually larger than that.

Quote from: Yololintian on June 30, 2014, 06:42:30 AM

The volume can easily be explained by the fact that the chinese exchanges have no trading fees. As an example some Chinese traders may be selling during the rally to buy back a few minutes later at a little lower price, which isn't as easy if there are trading fees that will cut into profit.

That may indeed happen, but it does not explain why they kept trading vigorously while the price was nearly stable, varying by only 2-3 yuan in each minute. Why wasn't this volume an hour ago, when price was varying by the same amount?

In contrast Bitstamp has been nearly dead for most of the time. Obviously it is not the Bitstamp traders who are moving the market.

You're reaching now, prof.

Large orders came in at the same time, on the minute, across stamp, huobi, and okcoin. Could even be a large enough trader who coordinated his buys across exchanges. Price moved more on huobi and okcoin than on stamp, but the order on stamp was bigger by volume by a factor of around 2.

Anyway, that's a case of 'it started across exchanges simultaneously', about as clear cut as it gets.