Quote from: boumalo on June 30, 2014, 09:05:47 PM

Quote from: PacoMartin on June 30, 2014, 08:22:15 PM

Quote from: dooglus on June 30, 2014, 02:02:20 AM

Yeah, I thought that was a little odd too. It wasn't me taking his coins after all.

It's the dark side of the gambler's fallacy. Some people think they are 'due' and if it doesn't happen they think someone is to blame.

In general you can never eliminate the variance completely unless you turn it into a carnival game. Perhaps if you do it again you can raise the house edge and reward the investors who stay in for the long haul and don't run when there is a big downturn. With a bigger HE there is also less variance. But if you can't kick yourself for not having a 2% HE, as the threat never goes away.

Look at Blackjack. I know that if you use basic strategy you can get under 1% house edge with most games, but many people don't use basic strategy. But more importantly people don't play their bankroll through one time, they gamble repeatedly with their winnings.

Nevada statewide made 11.87% of the money put down on it's 2,703 blackjack tables winning $1.084 billion in the last 12 months. But even with that kind of advantage, you still have whales that turn individual casinos upside down once in a while.

You can eliminate variance; in some states the state owned lottery redistribute 20-40% of the sums played for scratch tickets and there is a fixed number of winning tickets : for exemple one small win per 30 tickets and one big win per 300tickets

Many game that depend on RNG remove the "randomness" from it. For example in DotA games (LoL or DotA 2) if you have a spell that has a 50% chance to stun someone, it's not exactly 50%.

Quote

For example, Slardar's Bash has a 25% probability to Stun the target. On the first attack, however, it will only have an ~8.5% probability to bash; this is its PRD constant C. Each subsequent attack without a bash increases this probability by 8.5%. So on the second attack, the chance is 17%, on the third it is 25.5%, etc. After a bash procs, the probability resets to 8.5% for the next attack. These probabilities average out so that, over a moderate period of time, Bash will proc very nearly 25% of the time.

- DotA 2 Pseudo-random distribution