Quote from: hill on July 02, 2014, 01:27:26 PM

JUST hold BTC, MSC, XCP and NXT.

I also hold these coins, in different percuentual amounts, so you gave me a fit occasion to discuss an issue. Besides the quality of these projects, which varies dramatically, and Ristos, in my opion too strict definition of pre mine scam, one has to wonder why these protocols should network in the way bitcoin probably does. Peter R wrote a post here, which almost completely changed my perception regarding altcoins. If you break down what your INVESTMENT in bitcoin is than it is nothing but the investment in a boardless worldwide decentralized ledger, which has a massive first mover advantage and additionally the possibility to absorb almost (this is the stuff where it gets interesting) all functions of the existing altcoins - cryptonotes might or might not be an exception (I think they are because of an educated guess regarding the regulation of bitcoin).

That said you can say all altcoins, except probably xmr and maybe for a limited amount of time xcp are not worth investing - I think that is true, but the speculation around altcoins fullfills a purpose. It is basically a reflection of the current weaknesses in the btc protocol, or better said it is a reflection of what the cryptospace thinks are the current weaknesses in the btc protocol. so if you want to make money just join the keynesian beauty contest, but get your objectives clear beforehand.

I am quite happy that you chose nxt in your holds - nxt is innovative, it has quite an army of developers but it has one thing which differs from the other two and that is the marketcap. In my opinion a further increase in market cap can only be given by network effects, it has to leave altcoin space and fullfill a real life purpose (this starts around 0,5% to 1% of bitcoins market cap, different opinions?) - I am really indifferent if this happens or if this doesn't happen.

maybe we can break it down to a rule of thumb which says up to a market cap of 0,5-1% of btc altcoins can simply be valued by their innovative potential (innovators are getting paid much more than followers - see drk to all the followers), from 0,5% to 1% network effects have to start to legitimize a further increase in value.