Quote from: iglasses on July 02, 2014, 08:12:29 PM

Quote from: hurricandave on July 02, 2014, 08:09:22 PM

I see post after post where mathematicians calculate profit or loss based on speed and difficulty, but the biggest factor that will get in the way is LUCK, the POOL LUCK has been destroyed by manufacturers and the private farms. Bitmain is a contributor to this as well. The difficulty is rising in leaps and bounds based on network speed but most of the public pools combined hash rate is getting left in the dust! Oh except when Bitmain or one of the other Manufacturers decides to raid a pool by jumping in with a Ph/s or two for a couple of hours while "testing". Crunch the numbers all you want, till you start adding in the Variance and LUCK of your favorite pool, those calculators are meaningless.

Well now we have really jumped the shark. Unless we calculate LUCK the math is unreliable?
ugh.

The guys at bitminter just went over 24hrs without a block, where is that in your calculations. The pool returns are diminishing and always have been, but we are at a tipping point where the drops are nearing an exponential loss for the public if the manufacturers don't back off the network and get the gear distributed to public miners.