Quote from: RoadStress on July 07, 2014, 05:19:29 AM

Quote from: jimmothy on July 06, 2014, 07:20:26 PM

So the first 10 companies to go with preorders showed the community exactly how preorders fuck over everyone involved but with spongebobtech its totally different right?

I wasn't aware that there were 10 companies that produced chips which failed. I wouldn't count 3rd party PCB developers on this because SP-Tech is directly producing the chips so they have their whole process in hand.

Second you need to look at who ran the companies that failed. BFL is run by a convicted felon, HashFail's CEO was a shady guy, BA team is unknown, Avalon is a student who got rich overnight and got blinded by his greed and Cointerra just used the US legal system to screw their customers. Have I missed any company? None of these companies are backed by 2 large VC companies who had many other successful projects so you are again comparing apples with oranges. All of the failed companies had their fail on their agenda from the start.

Spondoolies may be the most "legit" company but they are not immune to the unpredictable variables involved in making an asic. Just like every other company they have no idea exactly how the chip will perform until they have it in hand. They also have no idea if it will work right away or take some troubleshooting. They don't even know if they will get the chips on time.

July only has about 3 weeks left and afaik they don't even have chips. They leaves basically zero time for fuckups or testing.

As for the companies there are: BFL, HF, CT, BA, KNC, bitmine, avalon, terrahash, AMT, VMC, and probably some others I've missed.

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No you paid ~$2/gh for your march order because btc was around $630 then. If next month btc is at $1000 then yes, you will have massively overpaid.
BTW about AM, the company has already ROI'd in only a month so I would say they are doing quite well.

The argument isn't valid because right now I can't repeat the same purchase that I made back in March because of the non-availability. I made the purchase then in order to get a better shipping date. I won't be able to order an SP30 next month with August delivery.

You can make the exact same purchase by buying 11 bitmain s3's. In fact you would have saved ~$1/gh.

You could have ordered an SP30 in july/august if they sold from stock. Too bad they decided to take tips from BFL and go with overpriced preorders.

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I'm glad you admit that looking in to the future is hard, so how can you possibly justify gambling on preorders?

The same way you justify your derivative.

Yes but with the difficulty derivative I find it extremely difficult to predict the next difficulty a week away. Even predicting the next difficulty ~3 days away is not easy.

So why even attempt to predict the btc exchange rate/difficulty 5+ months away?