Quote from: brasilbitcoin on July 07, 2014, 12:35:28 PM

Quote from: Bonobo on July 06, 2014, 10:11:28 AM

Quote from: vaisajne on July 05, 2014, 10:21:13 PM

Great news and thanks for the bonus hash power. You are doing a great job by passing on the benefit to old customers whenever you are slashing your prices down.

Use code UMANO_17 for 3% discount.

They are not passing on the benefit to old customers. I am two months into a 12 month contract - am I an 'old' customer? But I am excluded from the upgrade.

All you people who have just 'benefited' from the latest price drop and upgrades need to know what to expect because I know you are all, like vaisajne, feeling like you just got a great bargain. I felt the same way two months ago when I bought my first GM contract and had it almost immediately upgraded from 4 to 9 MH/s - just like what happened last week. That inspired me to buy another larger contract a week after the first one - I now have 59MH/s. It felt great to have all this money coming in day after day. I always understood that the rate of returns would drop off, but what I was not prepared for was the RATE at which they would drop off. To put it simply the payout in BTC is roughly halving every month. After two months I am getting less than a quarter the payout I was getting when I started. GM announced last week that they will be bringing online a new datacenter and new ASICs. Undoubtedly there will be much competition in the space for the foreseeable future. I believe we can expect the monthly halving of returns to continue for some time. I am not even going to come close to breaking even. If I get back more than 50% of the BTC I invested I will consider myself lucky.

Here is another chart. It shows my accumulated GM payouts in pink. The black line is an exponential which shows the break-even level. If the pink line is above the black line I will make a profit at the end of the contract.

http://i.imgur.com/vYam17P.jpg

I know my opinions may not be popular with people who have just bought contracts (you will be in denial), but I am really talking to people who are on the fence, about to commit. Think again - you will probably only get half your BTC back. I am not saying GM is a scam. I am just saying that the reality is that under present conditions their business model is uneconomic for us customers. GM have stated very clearly that they will not be upgrading 'old' customers like me, so basically everybody who has a GM contract is going to lose money, at least until the network hashrate stabilises some time way in the future. The only people who are going to make money are GM.

All you people who are feeling smug about the 'free' upgrade you just got - you will be feeling like me in a month or two when history repeats itself - and even worse when your contract expires and you have lost half your BTC.

If the rate of returns suddenly improves and I turn out to be full of BS I will not only have egg on my face - I will also have a big smile on my face! I have 18 BTC in the game.

The same thing happened to me. I doubt anyone get the money back. If someone is more than four months to Genesis and can pass their experience of profitability would be great for the community.
thank you.

Hmmm - interesting question. I have only been with GM since May 10 but I can have a stab at answering your question. I already have a chart of GM output back to February 21. This is deduced from payouts to bitcoin addresses on the blockchain. Most useful is 1FMDZFPohTpLy4RZsWhum9dRKBnANbTXF which started receiving payouts on February 21 2014 when there appear to have only been five users. It seems to have been a GM test account because on May 5 it stopped receiving and sent all the earnings to 1ATRmyPxNqpFgcn8Dna31F5BkKP4sPAQhW which is a GM address. Of course I don't know how many MH/s was associated with this account but by comparing my received payments with other receiving addresses I have been able to calibrate it. This is the chart going back to February 21:

http://i.imgur.com/CYtRN2V.jpg

The pink line is my own data. The yellow is 1FMDZFPohTpLy4RZsWhum9dRKBnANbTXF and the blue is 1Bg6P6Ve2WVtiqBS8YEKZjPK71QQvcpBMs which overlaps my data and the other set.

Clearly prior to May there was a lot more up and down, but since then it has just been down all the way.

To answer your question we need to guess what a GM contract would have cost on February 21. I bought a 5MH/s contract on May 10 for 3.43467 BTC (I was upgraded to 9MH/s a few days later). The price of BTC on that day was about $453. If GM contract prices (in dollars) were the same Between Feb 21 and May 10 I am guessing the cost of 5MH/s would have been around 2.75 BTC because the price of BTC was about $565.

Taking all the payouts since February 21 until today a 5MH/s contract would have earned 2.17 BTC which is 79% of the original cost. Extrapolating the current trend in payouts I reckon a 5MH/s contract will take a further 0.137 BTC from now until Feb 21 2015. This, of course, is conjecture but it is based on the observed figures.

It is clear to me that if GM had continued to perform in a similar way to how it was from February to May it is quite likely that it would have been profitable, but it is what it is. Since May it has just gone through the floor. It seems highly likely that all GM contracts, including ones started as far back as February, will all expire losing BTC. If you calculate in dollars you might not see a loss if the price of BTC explodes, but personally I am only interested in the ROI in BTC.