Quote from: smooth on July 15, 2014, 11:07:44 PM

Quote from: villabacho on July 15, 2014, 10:59:36 PM

I'm wondering if reaching the same high as last time (=0.010) wouldn't already indicate a rising trend, because there are much more coins in circulation now. So if we reach 0.010 again, much more capital will have flown into XMR than was the case at the time of the last high.

Would be interested to hear your opinions on that view.

I would consider it a weak indication in support of your premise, since it would imply that technicals are supporting movement in the same direction as fundamentals.

Fundamentally it is more meaningful to look at the full-emitted market cap. The reason being that the market consensus future price is equal to the current price (approximately -- there might be a slight divergence due to different carrying costs, but that should be quite small). So the best neutral (meaning without making a bet against the market) estimate of future market cap is future coins outstanding times current price.

I agree with this, except in cases where there is a very slow mining distribution curve (>50 years to reach 90% for example)
In that case, there IS in fact a limitation that will be felt and this could push the exchange rate up.
In the case of monero, we will have 90% in a relatively short period of time. this period will be of the same order as the adoption curve... I guess this is the key. The adoption curve and the mining distribution need to be along the same rate to have a stable exchange rate during the adoption period.

edit: makes me wonder... maybe new altcoins could integrate the logistic curve with a 5-10 years curve to reach 90% ??