Quote from: elebit on July 17, 2014, 12:25:59 PM

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 14, 2014, 07:21:33 PM

My bear-masked estimates are
are

So you really think we'll see something much worse than the Mtgox crash in 2014 with a probability of over 50%?

Is that realistic? Do you have something specific in mind?

In my reply to JJG I said clearly that I do not see how one can make 'fundamented' predictions. Anyone can make guesses out of thin air, just from 'intuition' (which is 'prejudice' to others, of course Cheesy

).

Those were my BEAR-MASKED estimates, just from 'intuition', with the bear side of my brain turned on and the bull side turned off.

But yes, it is quite possible that the price will crash to 100$ or lower. MtGOX actually did not have much of an impact; for one thing it was mostly a Western problem that did not affect the Chinese speculators very much. The only significant impact of MtGOX was on Feb/10 when Mark announced a "bug in the protocol", but price immediately recovered when the claim was dismissed.

The really bad events were the PBoC decrees, and rumors about them. The correlation of Chinese bad/good news and large drops/rises is quite obvious. They caused the fall in early December, and several large drops in 2014, reaching briefly down to 350$. The recovery in late December was due to Huobi and then OKCoin finding workarounds to the decree.

If the price dropped to 350$ on unfounded rumors, promptly dismissedm, it is easy to predict that, if China were to take a much harder stance on bitcoin (and there is no way of telling whether they will) the price would surely fall to well below 350$.

How much below that? It is hard to tell what would be the price if China had never entered the picture, but I am convinced that without China the 2013 rallies (April, October, and November) would not have happened, and the price today would be below 100$. That is where my guesstimate '40% chance of below 100$ in 2014' above came from.