Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 14, 2014, 07:21:33 PM

Quote from: niothor on April 14, 2014, 06:54:53 PM

You're more of a bear than my cute avatar

My bear-masked estimates are

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 40%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 60%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 70%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 80%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 30%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 5%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 1%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 0% (for practical purposes)
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

For some reason, I missed this post/prediction until it was required by Richy_T.

In sum, the prediction within this post is fucking ridiculous and potentially based on some fantasy land version of the world and bitcoins place in the world.

Largely, my somewhat subtle irritation with the prediction stems from the 99% or more likelihood that Jorge knows better. NOT only is he sloppy with his description of his prediction, his predictive numbers are restarted.

In essence, Jorge's prediction is in lala land bc it seems quite unlikely, less than 30% chance, absent some catastrophic event, that bitcoin prices are going below $500 in the remainder of 2014.

Further, seems that it is more likely than not (more than 50% chance) that BTC prices will go above $750 during the remainder of 2014.