Now I will slam-dunk my point.
How do you explain away the following then?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_life_cycle
Notice that all those that were decentralized have an S-curve (logistic) and those that were not decentralized are more log-logistic. The airplane isn't even log-logistic because it is so investment controlled and thus top-down centralized (regulations, etc), although its curve could be the very early portion of logistic (see the one end of the S at the beginning) which would predicts perhaps that decentralization of aviation is coming, see my blog essay on flying cars.
Trying to curve-fit "adoption" is really silly at this point. It's probably silly for most tech phenomena as they all have very different, often unpredictable, dynamics that are never going to follow any nice curve...
How do you explain away the following then?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_life_cycle
Quote
The shape of the technology lifecycle is often referred to as S-curve.
Notice that all those that were decentralized have an S-curve (logistic) and those that were not decentralized are more log-logistic. The airplane isn't even log-logistic because it is so investment controlled and thus top-down centralized (regulations, etc), although its curve could be the very early portion of logistic (see the one end of the S at the beginning) which would predicts perhaps that decentralization of aviation is coming, see my blog essay on flying cars.