Quote from: AnonyMint on July 19, 2014, 02:29:04 AM

Quote from: Melbustus on July 19, 2014, 02:25:12 AM

Trying to curve-fit "adoption" is really silly at this point. It's probably silly for most tech phenomena as they all have very different, often unpredictable, dynamics that are never going to follow any nice curve...

How do you explain away the following then?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_life_cycle

Quote

The shape of the technology lifecycle is often referred to as S-curve.

Yeah, I've seen that image quite a bit, thanks. Surprise surprise, it's like a bunch of random noise blew differently through all those curves (which, yes, are generated by some sort of similar underlying human phenomena). And yet what you're basically doing is zooming in on the early part of one of them, where there's likely to be especially big noise, trying to fit a nice elegant little curve anyways, and then making investment decisions based upon that. Sometimes what gives the elegance-seeking part of our intellect great satisfaction just doesn't matter. This particular domain is one where qualitative fundamentals analysis actually seems better than quantitative attempts.