Quote from: xiaoping82 on July 20, 2014, 11:29:54 AM

Quote from: xiaoping82 on July 20, 2014, 10:51:59 AM

BTC Conspiracy Coin Analysis 19.07.2014 BTC

First of all, let me introduce myself. My nickname is xiaoping and I work for one of the largest financial institutions. No personal information is given due to my professional obligations. So far, I have invested in capital markets like stocks, futures and forex to some extent. Some time ago I became interested in crypto-currencies, especially in their profitability level - 100% per day isnt anything unusual on this market.
After a few successful transactions, I decided to start posting my thoughts and opinions about the most promising crypto-currencies. I still discover basic principles, therefore I apologize in advance for any mistakes and confusion.

As my first analysis, I would like to publish Conspiracy Coin (abbreviation -CYC) analysis.

Specification
0 % pre-mine
Algorithm:       X11 POW
Symbol:       CYC
Max. # of coins:    33 Million (currently 1,3 million on the market) only 4%
Block Reward:       33
Block Time:       2 Minutes
Difficulty Retarget:    DGW

The most important events related to CYC (last month)
●   Added to coinwarz.com on (16.07.2014)
●   Listed on Bittrex on (06.07.2014)
●   Attack on civilian plane in Ukraine (17.07.2014) combined with the subject of the currency may result in increased interest
●   Announcement of the developer about expected changes in the Coin. The new implementation is to allow it to be able to extract each CYC
●   The dynamic increase of votes at MintPal should result in adding the coin

STRENGTHS

1.   Low power costs for miners (50% of scrypt)
2.   Very active developer, non-profit oriented (no premine), quickly responsive for communitys suggestions
3.   Strong community - fast entry to the CW, Bittrex and Poloniex, large number of votes on MintPals voting list
4.   Large interest on the market - a lot of BIDs visible on Poloniex and Bittrex
5.   Stable software - very few bugs and issues quickly fixed by the developer

WEAKNESSES

1.   In my personal opinion POS would be a better choice than POW

EXCHANGES

Poloniex

Whole trading history

http://i.imgur.com/k0QK2xn.png

Max. price of Conspiracy Coin was 0,00048 BTC for 1 CYC (please refer numer 1 on the chart). Number 2 shows minimal price for CYC - please note that no one sold at this time. This will be a point of resistance when MintPal will add the currency to its IPO. An unexpected (but very welcomed) event could be also adding to Cryptsy. If you look at ASKs, there are a few amount to 0,0005 only 14 BTC ! ! !

Book orders on Poloniex

http://i.imgur.com/fpGh9EA.png

As you can see, on Poloniex there are only 79621 CYC coin on sell orders and 12,49 BTC on demand. If someone would like to buy everything, he have to pay 79621 CYC * 0,00012 BTC = 9,55452 BTC. This is very low cost however, as you can see, asks are spreading on many different levels.

The highest ask is 3.8676914 CYC for the price of 0.00899999 BTC (total cost is 0.03480918 BTC).
The situation on the market shows that sellers are very little compared to the buyers.
Interesting fact: 14 BTC to 0,0005

Bittrex

Book orders

http://i.imgur.com/ZezYxo2.png

What is very interesting, on both exchanges (Poloniex and Bittrex) is the fact that there are very few asks (see the chart above). Only 32 BTC to 0,01 BTC. I have been watching the coin for about 1 month and observed that small group of miners sell their CYC coins.

Demand / Supply

http://i.imgur.com/jDLpbwT.png

Strong demand, weak supply. There are a lot of buyers and very few sellers on the market. Guess who will win?
Statistics:

Total sellers amount (ASK): 32 BTC
Total buyers amount (BID): 32 BTC

Chart entire range

http://i.imgur.com/7tXSeZ0.png

We are in consolidation before the move up. You can see that course first went to 12000 sat and now it is at the same point. I am expecting the strong move up. I think that someone bought large number of coins during the first movement (check the big volume on 10th of July) and now will be interested in the increasing of the coin value.

List of twitter guru who are involved on this coin

http://i.imgur.com/d1DKekj.png

Worth to remember:
●   We are expecting a white-paper on Sunday. This is one of the most important things in coming days.
●   There is a very big chance to add the coin to MintPal if voting continues to be so successful. Most probable date is the next weekend.
●   Cryptsy could add the Conspiracy Coin very soon
●   New implementation from the developer in nearest future
●   Strong community focus on this coin - they believe in conspiracy

Recommendation: trade price in near future is 0,004 BTC:
Buy it! It is expected, that after entering MintPal the price will raise significantly. Why? Because there are almost no sellers visible on the market. Current situation on the exchanges suggests big commitment to the currency and high potential value. I am expecting that after entering the MintPal, the price may fluctuate in the range of 0.004 BTC. It is interesting that one great player (big whale) can push the price to 0.01 BTC, because there are simply no obstructions.

http://i.imgur.com/hqJR7KN.jpg

I wish you happy trading and unlimited profits ! ! !

xiaoping

UPDATE TO MY ANALYSIS. THIS IS A PDF OF MY WORK: http://speedy.sh/FZd22/Analysis-CYC.pdf

Please put your ConspiracyCoin address in your signature so people can donate for your efforts.